Recent National Weather Service and AccuWeather guidance for Miami shows overnight lows centered in the 78–82 °F range, consistent with late-August climatology where the average minimum is near 78–80 °F. With no strong frontal passages or unusual wind shifts expected, trader probabilities cluster on 78–81 °F outcomes because subtle differences in cloud cover, thunderstorm timing, and boundary-layer moisture will determine how much radiational cooling occurs after sunset. Clearer skies allow greater longwave radiation loss and lower minima, while persistent low-level humidity or scattered convection limits cooling and keeps readings closer to 81 °F. Short-term model runs continue to show only modest spread in 2-m temperatures, supporting the tight market distribution between the two leading bins and the lower odds assigned to more extreme departures.