Short-term forecast models show notable divergence for Qingdao's minimum temperature on September 20, with ensemble spreads supporting the near-even split between cooler and warmer outcomes. Coastal influences from the Yellow Sea, variable southerly flow, and the position of a weak trough or ridge over eastern China are key differentiators, as sea surface temperatures remain near seasonal norms while upper-level patterns determine nocturnal cooling rates. Historical September lows average 16–18°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF is expected within the next 24–48 hours and could narrow the implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
Lowest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
15°C or below 100%
25°C or higher 97%
21°C 39%
17°C 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
15°C or below
100%
16°C
18%
17°C
37%
18°C
22%
19°C
30%
20°C
29%
21°C
39%
22°C
37%
23°C
17%
24°C
13%
25°C or higher
97%
15°C or below 100%
25°C or higher 97%
21°C 39%
17°C 37%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
15°C or below
$0 KL.
100%
16°C
$0 KL.
18%
17°C
$0 KL.
37%
18°C
$0 KL.
22%
19°C
$0 KL.
30%
20°C
$0 KL.
29%
21°C
$0 KL.
39%
22°C
$0 KL.
37%
23°C
$0 KL.
17%
24°C
$0 KL.
13%
25°C or higher
$0 KL.
97%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models show notable divergence for Qingdao's minimum temperature on September 20, with ensemble spreads supporting the near-even split between cooler and warmer outcomes. Coastal influences from the Yellow Sea, variable southerly flow, and the position of a weak trough or ridge over eastern China are key differentiators, as sea surface temperatures remain near seasonal norms while upper-level patterns determine nocturnal cooling rates. Historical September lows average 16–18°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF is expected within the next 24–48 hours and could narrow the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Short-term forecast models show notable divergence for Qingdao's minimum temperature on September 20, with ensemble spreads supporting the near-even split between cooler and warmer outcomes. Coastal influences from the Yellow Sea, variable southerly flow, and the position of a weak trough or ridge over eastern China are key differentiators, as sea surface temperatures remain near seasonal norms while upper-level patterns determine nocturnal cooling rates. Historical September lows average 16–18°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF is expected within the next 24–48 hours and could narrow the implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 12:31 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Short-term forecast models show notable divergence for Qingdao's minimum temperature on September 20, with ensemble spreads supporting the near-even split between cooler and warmer outcomes. Coastal influences from the Yellow Sea, variable southerly flow, and the position of a weak trough or ridge over eastern China are key differentiators, as sea surface temperatures remain near seasonal norms while upper-level patterns determine nocturnal cooling rates. Historical September lows average 16–18°C, but recent model runs highlight sensitivity to small shifts in wind direction and cloud cover. Updated guidance from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF is expected within the next 24–48 hours and could narrow the implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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