**Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) centers the September 20 maximum in Qingdao near 28–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly to southwesterly flow, and dew points in the mid-20s °C that limit nocturnal cooling.** These conditions favor daytime heating above the seasonal average without significant cloud cover or precipitation, placing the 30 °C and 31 °C bins at the core of the distribution and driving their combined market-implied probability above 79 %. Ensemble spreads show modest upside risk from stronger southerly advection or clearer breaks, supporting the 19.9 % on 32 °C or higher, while downside scenarios tied to increased marine influence or thicker afternoon cloud remain low-probability per the latest runs. Updated guidance expected overnight will refine the precise peak.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
Highest temperature in Qingdao on September 20?
31°C 48%
30°C 33%
32°C or higher 18.6%
29°C 4%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
4%
30°C
33%
31°C
48%
32°C or higher
19%
31°C 48%
30°C 33%
32°C or higher 18.6%
29°C 4%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
22°C or below
$181 KL.
<1%
23°C
$41 KL.
<1%
24°C
$41 KL.
<1%
25°C
$41 KL.
<1%
26°C
$93 KL.
<1%
27°C
$5 KL.
1%
28°C
$393 KL.
2%
29°C
$362 KL.
4%
30°C
$3,059 KL.
33%
31°C
$2,197 KL.
48%
32°C or higher
$1,225 KL.
19%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) centers the September 20 maximum in Qingdao near 28–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly to southwesterly flow, and dew points in the mid-20s °C that limit nocturnal cooling.** These conditions favor daytime heating above the seasonal average without significant cloud cover or precipitation, placing the 30 °C and 31 °C bins at the core of the distribution and driving their combined market-implied probability above 79 %. Ensemble spreads show modest upside risk from stronger southerly advection or clearer breaks, supporting the 19.9 % on 32 °C or higher, while downside scenarios tied to increased marine influence or thicker afternoon cloud remain low-probability per the latest runs. Updated guidance expected overnight will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ET
Khối lượng
$7,637Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) centers the September 20 maximum in Qingdao near 28–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly to southwesterly flow, and dew points in the mid-20s °C that limit nocturnal cooling.** These conditions favor daytime heating above the seasonal average without significant cloud cover or precipitation, placing the 30 °C and 31 °C bins at the core of the distribution and driving their combined market-implied probability above 79 %. Ensemble spreads show modest upside risk from stronger southerly advection or clearer breaks, supporting the 19.9 % on 32 °C or higher, while downside scenarios tied to increased marine influence or thicker afternoon cloud remain low-probability per the latest runs. Updated guidance expected overnight will refine the precise peak.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Qingdao Jiaodong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 20 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$7,637Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2026, 12:59 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zsqdNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...**Recent model consensus from sources including the China Meteorological Administration and international ensembles (ECMWF/GFS) centers the September 20 maximum in Qingdao near 28–30 °C under partly cloudy skies, light southerly to southwesterly flow, and dew points in the mid-20s °C that limit nocturnal cooling.** These conditions favor daytime heating above the seasonal average without significant cloud cover or precipitation, placing the 30 °C and 31 °C bins at the core of the distribution and driving their combined market-implied probability above 79 %. Ensemble spreads show modest upside risk from stronger southerly advection or clearer breaks, supporting the 19.9 % on 32 °C or higher, while downside scenarios tied to increased marine influence or thicker afternoon cloud remain low-probability per the latest runs. Updated guidance expected overnight will refine the precise peak.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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