The distribution of market-implied odds, with 25°C leading at 33% followed closely by 26°C and 24°C, reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction guidance for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 19. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a cloudy day with frequent scattered showers and northeasterly winds, supporting highs near 24–25°C—below the early-September normal of about 26°C—while recent wetter conditions have kept daytime maxima suppressed. Key variables include the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, cloud thickness affecting solar heating, and any shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries that could allow brief clearing and higher readings or further cooling. Ensemble model spreads continue to drive the balanced probabilities across the central outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 19?
25°C 34%
26°C 23%
24°C 22%
23°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
2%
23°C
14%
24°C
22%
25°C
34%
26°C
23%
27°C
7%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
<1%
25°C 34%
26°C 23%
24°C 22%
23°C 14%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 19, 2026
20°C or below
$1,865 KL.
<1%
21°C
$117 KL.
<1%
22°C
$271 KL.
2%
23°C
$2,382 KL.
14%
24°C
$1,383 KL.
22%
25°C
$857 KL.
34%
26°C
$428 KL.
23%
27°C
$325 KL.
7%
28°C
$222 KL.
3%
29°C
$707 KL.
1%
30°C or higher
$899 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The distribution of market-implied odds, with 25°C leading at 33% followed closely by 26°C and 24°C, reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction guidance for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 19. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a cloudy day with frequent scattered showers and northeasterly winds, supporting highs near 24–25°C—below the early-September normal of about 26°C—while recent wetter conditions have kept daytime maxima suppressed. Key variables include the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, cloud thickness affecting solar heating, and any shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries that could allow brief clearing and higher readings or further cooling. Ensemble model spreads continue to drive the balanced probabilities across the central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Khối lượng
$9,456Ngày kết thúc
Sep 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The distribution of market-implied odds, with 25°C leading at 33% followed closely by 26°C and 24°C, reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction guidance for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 19. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a cloudy day with frequent scattered showers and northeasterly winds, supporting highs near 24–25°C—below the early-September normal of about 26°C—while recent wetter conditions have kept daytime maxima suppressed. Key variables include the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, cloud thickness affecting solar heating, and any shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries that could allow brief clearing and higher readings or further cooling. Ensemble model spreads continue to drive the balanced probabilities across the central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$9,456Ngày kết thúc
Sep 19, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 17, 2026, 12:56 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The distribution of market-implied odds, with 25°C leading at 33% followed closely by 26°C and 24°C, reflects substantial uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction guidance for Tokyo’s maximum temperature on September 19. Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts indicate a cloudy day with frequent scattered showers and northeasterly winds, supporting highs near 24–25°C—below the early-September normal of about 26°C—while recent wetter conditions have kept daytime maxima suppressed. Key variables include the precise timing and intensity of rainfall, cloud thickness affecting solar heating, and any shifts in steering patterns or frontal boundaries that could allow brief clearing and higher readings or further cooling. Ensemble model spreads continue to drive the balanced probabilities across the central outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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