Recent National Weather Service and model guidance points to a Monday night low in San Francisco in the upper 50s, aligning with the market’s leading 58–59 °F bin at 38 % implied probability. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore southwest flow are expected to limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping temperatures near or slightly above the 56 °F climatological average. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with most runs clustering between 57–59 °F and minimal risk of either strong offshore warming that could push readings into the mid-60s or deeper marine intrusion capable of dipping into the low 50s. Traders appear to be weighting the current forecast stability heavily while discounting the small tail probabilities attached to 68 °F+ or sub-50 °F outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
Lowest temperature in San Francisco on August 24?
68°F or higher 53%
49°F or below 49%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
49%
50-51°F
23%
52-53°F
15%
54-55°F
15%
56-57°F
16%
58-59°F
44%
60-61°F
23%
62-63°F
14%
64-65°F
16%
66-67°F
1%
68°F or higher
53%
68°F or higher 53%
49°F or below 49%
58-59°F 37%
50-51°F 23%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 24, 2026
49°F or below
$55 KL.
49%
50-51°F
$55 KL.
23%
52-53°F
$0 KL.
15%
54-55°F
$0 KL.
15%
56-57°F
$0 KL.
16%
58-59°F
$5 KL.
44%
60-61°F
$0 KL.
23%
62-63°F
$0 KL.
14%
64-65°F
$55 KL.
16%
66-67°F
$5 KL.
1%
68°F or higher
$185 KL.
53%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance points to a Monday night low in San Francisco in the upper 50s, aligning with the market’s leading 58–59 °F bin at 38 % implied probability. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore southwest flow are expected to limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping temperatures near or slightly above the 56 °F climatological average. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with most runs clustering between 57–59 °F and minimal risk of either strong offshore warming that could push readings into the mid-60s or deeper marine intrusion capable of dipping into the low 50s. Traders appear to be weighting the current forecast stability heavily while discounting the small tail probabilities attached to 68 °F+ or sub-50 °F outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
Khối lượng
$360Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service and model guidance points to a Monday night low in San Francisco in the upper 50s, aligning with the market’s leading 58–59 °F bin at 38 % implied probability. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore southwest flow are expected to limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping temperatures near or slightly above the 56 °F climatological average. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with most runs clustering between 57–59 °F and minimal risk of either strong offshore warming that could push readings into the mid-60s or deeper marine intrusion capable of dipping into the low 50s. Traders appear to be weighting the current forecast stability heavily while discounting the small tail probabilities attached to 68 °F+ or sub-50 °F outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$360Ngày kết thúc
Aug 24, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 22, 2026, 9:30 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service and model guidance points to a Monday night low in San Francisco in the upper 50s, aligning with the market’s leading 58–59 °F bin at 38 % implied probability. Persistent marine-layer stratus and onshore southwest flow are expected to limit nocturnal radiational cooling, keeping temperatures near or slightly above the 56 °F climatological average. Ensemble consensus shows little spread, with most runs clustering between 57–59 °F and minimal risk of either strong offshore warming that could push readings into the mid-60s or deeper marine intrusion capable of dipping into the low 50s. Traders appear to be weighting the current forecast stability heavily while discounting the small tail probabilities attached to 68 °F+ or sub-50 °F outcomes.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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