Current short-range forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration and ensemble models indicate overnight lows in Seoul/Incheon on August 18 will most likely settle in the 23–25°C range, driven by typical late-summer humidity, residual moisture from mid-month showers, and limited radiative cooling under partly cloudy skies. Higher dew points and light winds suppress temperature drops, while any clearer breaks or stronger southerly flow could push the minimum toward 26°C. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–25°C reflects this narrow forecast spread and historical August climatology, where Incheon averages near 23°C but recent patterns have trended warmer; resolution hinges on the official 24-hour minimum recorded at the Incheon station between sunset on the 17th and sunrise on the 19th.