Current ensemble forecasts from major weather models point to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 16 under widespread rain, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating and overnight radiational cooling. Cooler outcomes near or below 19°C would require stronger cold-air advection or earlier clearing, while warmer readings above 21°C depend on delayed frontal passage or lingering humidity. Historical mid-September lows average near 19°C, but short-range model spread on precipitation timing and wind strength keeps probabilities for 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C closely matched at 18–28%. Updated runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Tokyo on September 16?
26°C or higher 60%
20°C 40%
17°C 38%
19°C 34%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
24%
17°C
38%
18°C
24%
19°C
34%
20°C
33%
21°C
22%
22°C
27%
23°C
23%
24°C
23%
25°C
23%
26°C or higher
60%
26°C or higher 60%
20°C 40%
17°C 38%
19°C 34%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 16, 2026
16°C or below
$0 KL.
24%
17°C
$0 KL.
38%
18°C
$0 KL.
24%
19°C
$0 KL.
34%
20°C
$49 KL.
33%
21°C
$0 KL.
22%
22°C
$0 KL.
27%
23°C
$0 KL.
23%
24°C
$0 KL.
23%
25°C
$0 KL.
23%
26°C or higher
$0 KL.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major weather models point to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 16 under widespread rain, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating and overnight radiational cooling. Cooler outcomes near or below 19°C would require stronger cold-air advection or earlier clearing, while warmer readings above 21°C depend on delayed frontal passage or lingering humidity. Historical mid-September lows average near 19°C, but short-range model spread on precipitation timing and wind strength keeps probabilities for 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C closely matched at 18–28%. Updated runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Khối lượng
$49Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from major weather models point to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 16 under widespread rain, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating and overnight radiational cooling. Cooler outcomes near or below 19°C would require stronger cold-air advection or earlier clearing, while warmer readings above 21°C depend on delayed frontal passage or lingering humidity. Historical mid-September lows average near 19°C, but short-range model spread on precipitation timing and wind strength keeps probabilities for 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C closely matched at 18–28%. Updated runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$49Ngày kết thúc
Sep 16, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 14, 2026, 12:29 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from major weather models point to a Tokyo minimum temperature of 19–21°C on September 16 under widespread rain, northerly winds, and persistent cloud cover that limits daytime heating and overnight radiational cooling. Cooler outcomes near or below 19°C would require stronger cold-air advection or earlier clearing, while warmer readings above 21°C depend on delayed frontal passage or lingering humidity. Historical mid-September lows average near 19°C, but short-range model spread on precipitation timing and wind strength keeps probabilities for 19°C, 20°C, and 21°C closely matched at 18–28%. Updated runs and official guidance from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine these thresholds ahead of resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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