Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLowest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
16°C 97%
14°C 3%
15°C 3%
13°C 2%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 21, 2026
12°C or below
1%
13°C
2%
14°C
3%
15°C
16%
16°C
97%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
16°C 97%
14°C 3%
15°C 3%
13°C 2%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 21, 2026
12°C or below
$721 KL.
1%
13°C
$119 KL.
2%
14°C
$136 KL.
3%
15°C
$61 KL.
16%
16°C
$197 KL.
97%
17°C
$1,970 KL.
<1%
18°C
$153 KL.
<1%
19°C
$129 KL.
<1%
20°C
$129 KL.
<1%
21°C
$129 KL.
<1%
22°C or higher
$160 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,902Ngày kết thúc
Aug 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$3,902Ngày kết thúc
Aug 21, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 1:29 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from European meteorological models and local Polish observations indicate a nighttime minimum near 16°C in Warsaw on August 21, aligning with the 96% market-implied probability for that outcome. This consensus reflects stable atmospheric conditions with moderate southerly flow, typical late-summer humidity, and no strong cold-air advection, consistent with climatological baselines where August overnight lows average 12–15°C. Traders price lower thresholds (15°C at 27%) only modestly because model runs show limited downside risk from cloud cover or light showers. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected frontal passage or rapid radiational cooling under clearer skies, though official station data through the early morning window currently support the leading resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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