**Forecast models for Wuhan on September 4 show nighttime lows clustered in the 19–23 °C range under clearing skies following a frontal passage.** Official local meteorological guidance and multiple numerical models (including GFS and regional runs) currently point to a high near 30–32 °C and a low of roughly 20–22 °C after northeast winds ease and cloud cover decreases. This setup favors moderate radiative cooling overnight once precipitation ends on September 3. **The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around 21–26 °C reflects genuine short-range forecast uncertainty in the precise minimum.** Key differentiating variables include the exact timing of cloud dissipation, boundary-layer wind speeds (lighter winds enhance surface cooling), and dew-point depression, which controls how far temperatures can fall before saturation. Clearer conditions would push the low toward the lower end of the distribution (near 19–21 °C), while lingering moisture or slightly stronger flow would keep it closer to 22–23 °C. Extremes below 18 °C or above 27 °C remain less likely given the current synoptic pattern and climatological norms for early September in the Yangtze River valley. **Traders are therefore weighting the most probable outcomes near the consensus forecast while assigning lower but non-zero probability to modest model spread.** Updated model runs and any revised guidance from the Wuhan Meteorological Observatory over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalysts for shifts in these odds.