Recent U.S. CPI data has intensified uncertainty around the May annual inflation print, with April’s 3.8% year-over-year reading—the highest since May 2023—driven by a 17.9% surge in the energy index amid Middle East supply disruptions. Traders are assigning roughly 70% combined probability to outcomes at or above 4.3%, reflecting bets that elevated gasoline and fuel-oil prices will persist into the May survey period and outweigh moderating shelter and core-goods trends. The closely matched top bins underscore divided views on the duration of the oil shock versus seasonal easing and base effects. The June 10 Bureau of Labor Statistics release remains the key catalyst that will resolve these probabilities.