Cleitinho Azevedo holds the strongest position in the Minas Gerais gubernatorial race, driven by consistent leads in recent Genial/Quaest polling that place him between 30% and 45% in first-round scenarios ahead of rivals such as Alexandre Kalil and Rodrigo Pacheco. Traders price his outcome highest as his support consolidates among conservative and evangelical voters while drawing from broader segments, reflecting party alliances including recent coordination with the PL. Pacheco’s lower share aligns with polls showing him at 8–12% and uncertainty over potential Lula backing or alternative roles. With the October 4, 2026 election still months away, primary conventions, candidate formalizations, and further surveys will shape shifts, as historical patterns show late consolidation in Brazil’s state races can alter frontrunner margins.