No event meeting the strict resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike—has occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with their low historical frequency. USGS seismic records show recent activity limited to lower-magnitude events well below the 8.5 cutoff, while National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates the Atlantic season has produced no qualifying landfalls amid typical steering patterns and intensity constraints. Volcanic and meteor risks remain statistically rare on annual scales. With four months remaining and stable conditions reducing near-term escalation potential, trader consensus assigns roughly 74% implied probability to “No,” though updated seasonal forecasts or unexpected seismic activity could still alter positioning before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
26% khả năng
$241,224 KL.
$241,224 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
26% khả năng
$241,224 KL.
$241,224 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No event meeting the strict resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike—has occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with their low historical frequency. USGS seismic records show recent activity limited to lower-magnitude events well below the 8.5 cutoff, while National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates the Atlantic season has produced no qualifying landfalls amid typical steering patterns and intensity constraints. Volcanic and meteor risks remain statistically rare on annual scales. With four months remaining and stable conditions reducing near-term escalation potential, trader consensus assigns roughly 74% implied probability to “No,” though updated seasonal forecasts or unexpected seismic activity could still alter positioning before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Thị trường mở: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Khối lượng
$241,224Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
No event meeting the strict resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike—has occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with their low historical frequency. USGS seismic records show recent activity limited to lower-magnitude events well below the 8.5 cutoff, while National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates the Atlantic season has produced no qualifying landfalls amid typical steering patterns and intensity constraints. Volcanic and meteor risks remain statistically rare on annual scales. With four months remaining and stable conditions reducing near-term escalation potential, trader consensus assigns roughly 74% implied probability to “No,” though updated seasonal forecasts or unexpected seismic activity could still alter positioning before December 31.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Khối lượng
$241,224Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No event meeting the strict resolution thresholds—a U.S. Category 5 hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike—has occurred through mid-August 2026, consistent with their low historical frequency. USGS seismic records show recent activity limited to lower-magnitude events well below the 8.5 cutoff, while National Hurricane Center monitoring indicates the Atlantic season has produced no qualifying landfalls amid typical steering patterns and intensity constraints. Volcanic and meteor risks remain statistically rare on annual scales. With four months remaining and stable conditions reducing near-term escalation potential, trader consensus assigns roughly 74% implied probability to “No,” though updated seasonal forecasts or unexpected seismic activity could still alter positioning before December 31.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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