Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 85.9% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, an acceleration from the 0.5% pace in the prior quarter, led by robust business investment in AI-related equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey and Goldman Sachs, project full-year growth between 2.2% and 2.8%, supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and resilient consumer outlays. With the economy operating above potential and recession probabilities near 12%, traders see limited scope for contraction absent major shocks such as sharp tariff escalation or labor-market deterioration.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
$26,508 KL.
$26,508 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
$26,508 KL.
$26,508 KL.
Jan 29, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 85.9% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, an acceleration from the 0.5% pace in the prior quarter, led by robust business investment in AI-related equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey and Goldman Sachs, project full-year growth between 2.2% and 2.8%, supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and resilient consumer outlays. With the economy operating above potential and recession probabilities near 12%, traders see limited scope for contraction absent major shocks such as sharp tariff escalation or labor-market deterioration.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,508Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 85.9% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, an acceleration from the 0.5% pace in the prior quarter, led by robust business investment in AI-related equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey and Goldman Sachs, project full-year growth between 2.2% and 2.8%, supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and resilient consumer outlays. With the economy operating above potential and recession probabilities near 12%, traders see limited scope for contraction absent major shocks such as sharp tariff escalation or labor-market deterioration.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$26,508Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and forecaster consensus underpin the 85.9% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth in 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported real GDP expanding at a 2.0% annualized rate in the first quarter of 2026, an acceleration from the 0.5% pace in the prior quarter, led by robust business investment in AI-related equipment and a rebound in exports and government spending. Professional forecasters, including the Philadelphia Fed survey and Goldman Sachs, project full-year growth between 2.2% and 2.8%, supported by fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act and resilient consumer outlays. With the economy operating above potential and recession probabilities near 12%, traders see limited scope for contraction absent major shocks such as sharp tariff escalation or labor-market deterioration.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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