Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0-2.3% for 2026 on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds such as elevated energy prices and tighter monetary policy. Recent data, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 print and upward revisions to prior quarters, reinforce this expansion near potential. Trader-implied odds near 97.5% against negative growth reflect this broad agreement and the economy's demonstrated resilience. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical oil shocks, abrupt fiscal or trade policy tightening, or a sharper labor market deterioration that tips the economy into contraction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
3% khả năng
$33,280 KL.
$33,280 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
3% khả năng
$33,280 KL.
$33,280 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0-2.3% for 2026 on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds such as elevated energy prices and tighter monetary policy. Recent data, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 print and upward revisions to prior quarters, reinforce this expansion near potential. Trader-implied odds near 97.5% against negative growth reflect this broad agreement and the economy's demonstrated resilience. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical oil shocks, abrupt fiscal or trade policy tightening, or a sharper labor market deterioration that tips the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,280Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0-2.3% for 2026 on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds such as elevated energy prices and tighter monetary policy. Recent data, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 print and upward revisions to prior quarters, reinforce this expansion near potential. Trader-implied odds near 97.5% against negative growth reflect this broad agreement and the economy's demonstrated resilience. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical oil shocks, abrupt fiscal or trade policy tightening, or a sharper labor market deterioration that tips the economy into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$33,280Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and private economists project U.S. real GDP growth of 2.0-2.3% for 2026 on an annual or Q4/Q4 basis, underpinned by resilient consumer spending, robust AI-driven business investment, and productivity gains that have offset headwinds such as elevated energy prices and tighter monetary policy. Recent data, including the 1.5% annualized Q2 2026 print and upward revisions to prior quarters, reinforce this expansion near potential. Trader-implied odds near 97.5% against negative growth reflect this broad agreement and the economy's demonstrated resilience. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include severe geopolitical oil shocks, abrupt fiscal or trade policy tightening, or a sharper labor market deterioration that tips the economy into contraction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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