US economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and major banks project 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4 percent on an annual-average or Q4/Q4 basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains that have offset softer labor-market trends and elevated energy prices. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5 percent annualized rate, with third-quarter nowcasts indicating stronger momentum near 4 percent. Market-implied odds near 98 percent for positive full-year growth reflect this broad institutional consensus and the economy’s demonstrated resilience to recent shocks. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting outcomes include a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering sustained energy-price spikes, an abrupt reversal in AI spending, or aggressive policy tightening that pushes the expansion into outright contraction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật2% khả năng
$33,280 KL.
$33,280 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
2% khả năng
$33,280 KL.
$33,280 KL.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.US economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and major banks project 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4 percent on an annual-average or Q4/Q4 basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains that have offset softer labor-market trends and elevated energy prices. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5 percent annualized rate, with third-quarter nowcasts indicating stronger momentum near 4 percent. Market-implied odds near 98 percent for positive full-year growth reflect this broad institutional consensus and the economy’s demonstrated resilience to recent shocks. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting outcomes include a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering sustained energy-price spikes, an abrupt reversal in AI spending, or aggressive policy tightening that pushes the expansion into outright contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$33,280Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.US economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and major banks project 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4 percent on an annual-average or Q4/Q4 basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains that have offset softer labor-market trends and elevated energy prices. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5 percent annualized rate, with third-quarter nowcasts indicating stronger momentum near 4 percent. Market-implied odds near 98 percent for positive full-year growth reflect this broad institutional consensus and the economy’s demonstrated resilience to recent shocks. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting outcomes include a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering sustained energy-price spikes, an abrupt reversal in AI spending, or aggressive policy tightening that pushes the expansion into outright contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$33,280Ngày kết thúc
Jan 29, 2027Thị trường mở
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...US economic forecasts from the Federal Reserve, IMF, and major banks project 2026 real GDP growth of 2.0–2.4 percent on an annual-average or Q4/Q4 basis, driven by resilient consumer spending, AI-related capital investment, and productivity gains that have offset softer labor-market trends and elevated energy prices. Second-quarter 2026 GDP expanded at a 1.5 percent annualized rate, with third-quarter nowcasts indicating stronger momentum near 4 percent. Market-implied odds near 98 percent for positive full-year growth reflect this broad institutional consensus and the economy’s demonstrated resilience to recent shocks. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting outcomes include a sharp escalation in geopolitical conflicts triggering sustained energy-price spikes, an abrupt reversal in AI spending, or aggressive policy tightening that pushes the expansion into outright contraction.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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