The Virginia Supreme Court’s May 8, 2026, 4-3 decision invalidated the April voter-approved constitutional amendment that would have allowed a new congressional map for the 2026 midterms, with the U.S. Supreme Court declining to intervene. This left the existing 2021 map in place for all primaries and the November 3 general election, as confirmed by state election officials. Traders assign near-certain probability to “No” because the ruling resolved the redistricting dispute months earlier with no successful subsequent legal or legislative overrides. Remaining uncertainty is limited to hypothetical late-stage procedural reversals or unprecedented court actions that have not materialized.