**Gintautas Kindurys leads trader pricing at 66.5% for the Northern Nalšia Seimas by-election winner, ahead of Mėta Paulauskė at 28.5% and Vladislav Kondratovič at 12.7%.** The by-election was triggered by the May 2026 death of the incumbent Liberal Movement MP Jevgenij Šuklin. In the November 8 first round, Kindurys (Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union) took 21.3% and Paulauskė (Liberals' Movement) 17.45%, advancing to the November 22 runoff while other candidates trailed, including Dalia Štraupaitė at 15.1% and Kondratovič at 9.55%. Turnout reached 32.2%. The constituency was previously viewed as a Farmers and Greens stronghold, and Kindurys's stronger first-round showing in a fragmented field underpins the current market gap. Paulauskė benefits from residual Liberal support in the district but faces a narrower path in the head-to-head. Lower-priced candidates show limited momentum after failing to reach the runoff. The upcoming second round remains the decisive event, with no major intervening developments reported since the first-round results.