OpenAI's heavy capital demands for scaling large language models and data centers, combined with recent reports of missed revenue targets and substantial projected losses through 2026, have shifted trader sentiment toward a delayed IPO. A May 2026 PitchBook analysis concluded that the company's targeted fourth-quarter 2026 filing now looks unattainable, pointing instead to mid-to-late 2027 amid ongoing restructuring and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. CFO Sarah Friar has publicly noted the organization is not yet ready for public markets, while a lingering lawsuit with Elon Musk adds further uncertainty. These factors explain the strong market-implied odds favoring no IPO by year-end 2026, even as the firm recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation that could support a larger eventual listing if timelines stabilize.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKhông IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 tỷ 3.5%
$1,638,927 KL.
$1,638,927 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
1%
500–750 tỷ
3%
750 tỷ–1 nghìn tỷ
2%
1T–1,25T
3%
1,25T–1,5T
4%
1,5T+
9%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026
68%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026 68%
1,5T+ 8.9%
1,25T–1,5T 3.7%
500–750 tỷ 3.5%
$1,638,927 KL.
$1,638,927 KL.
Jun 30, 2026
<500B
$266,172 KL.
1%
500–750 tỷ
$146,331 KL.
3%
750 tỷ–1 nghìn tỷ
$141,047 KL.
2%
1T–1,25T
$182,630 KL.
3%
1,25T–1,5T
$496,527 KL.
4%
1,5T+
$101,032 KL.
9%
Không IPO trước ngày 31 tháng 12 năm 2026
$305,188 KL.
68%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's heavy capital demands for scaling large language models and data centers, combined with recent reports of missed revenue targets and substantial projected losses through 2026, have shifted trader sentiment toward a delayed IPO. A May 2026 PitchBook analysis concluded that the company's targeted fourth-quarter 2026 filing now looks unattainable, pointing instead to mid-to-late 2027 amid ongoing restructuring and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. CFO Sarah Friar has publicly noted the organization is not yet ready for public markets, while a lingering lawsuit with Elon Musk adds further uncertainty. These factors explain the strong market-implied odds favoring no IPO by year-end 2026, even as the firm recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation that could support a larger eventual listing if timelines stabilize.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Thị trường mở: Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,638,927Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI's heavy capital demands for scaling large language models and data centers, combined with recent reports of missed revenue targets and substantial projected losses through 2026, have shifted trader sentiment toward a delayed IPO. A May 2026 PitchBook analysis concluded that the company's targeted fourth-quarter 2026 filing now looks unattainable, pointing instead to mid-to-late 2027 amid ongoing restructuring and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. CFO Sarah Friar has publicly noted the organization is not yet ready for public markets, while a lingering lawsuit with Elon Musk adds further uncertainty. These factors explain the strong market-implied odds favoring no IPO by year-end 2026, even as the firm recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation that could support a larger eventual listing if timelines stabilize.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Khối lượng
$1,638,927Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 22, 2025, 8:18 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI's heavy capital demands for scaling large language models and data centers, combined with recent reports of missed revenue targets and substantial projected losses through 2026, have shifted trader sentiment toward a delayed IPO. A May 2026 PitchBook analysis concluded that the company's targeted fourth-quarter 2026 filing now looks unattainable, pointing instead to mid-to-late 2027 amid ongoing restructuring and competitive pressures from rivals like Anthropic. CFO Sarah Friar has publicly noted the organization is not yet ready for public markets, while a lingering lawsuit with Elon Musk adds further uncertainty. These factors explain the strong market-implied odds favoring no IPO by year-end 2026, even as the firm recently closed a $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion valuation that could support a larger eventual listing if timelines stabilize.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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