Recent official actions have reinforced trader expectations against a 2026 pardon. Peru’s Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared Castillo’s clemency and humanitarian pardon requests inadmissible, including the sixth such filing in recent weeks. The transitional government publicly stated in February 2026 that no presidential clemency measures, including pardons, were under consideration or scheduled. These positions align with Castillo’s November 2025 sentencing to 11 years and five months for rebellion and conspiracy, followed by continued imprisonment at Barbadillo. Ongoing electoral dynamics, including the June 2026 runoff between candidates who have visited Castillo and conservative rivals, have not produced policy shifts favoring clemency. The market’s implied 17–18% probability for a pardon reflects this consistent institutional resistance and absence of enabling executive or legislative moves.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026?
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent official actions have reinforced trader expectations against a 2026 pardon. Peru’s Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared Castillo’s clemency and humanitarian pardon requests inadmissible, including the sixth such filing in recent weeks. The transitional government publicly stated in February 2026 that no presidential clemency measures, including pardons, were under consideration or scheduled.
These positions align with Castillo’s November 2025 sentencing to 11 years and five months for rebellion and conspiracy, followed by continued imprisonment at Barbadillo. Ongoing electoral dynamics, including the June 2026 runoff between candidates who have visited Castillo and conservative rivals, have not produced policy shifts favoring clemency. The market’s implied 17–18% probability for a pardon reflects this consistent institutional resistance and absence of enabling executive or legislative moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,531Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent official actions have reinforced trader expectations against a 2026 pardon. Peru’s Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared Castillo’s clemency and humanitarian pardon requests inadmissible, including the sixth such filing in recent weeks. The transitional government publicly stated in February 2026 that no presidential clemency measures, including pardons, were under consideration or scheduled.
These positions align with Castillo’s November 2025 sentencing to 11 years and five months for rebellion and conspiracy, followed by continued imprisonment at Barbadillo. Ongoing electoral dynamics, including the June 2026 runoff between candidates who have visited Castillo and conservative rivals, have not produced policy shifts favoring clemency. The market’s implied 17–18% probability for a pardon reflects this consistent institutional resistance and absence of enabling executive or legislative moves.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pedro Castillo receives a presidential pardon, commutation, right of grace, humanitarian pardon, or other formal grant of clemency from the President of Peru by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM PET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying grant of clemency must be officially issued by the President of Peru and must relieve Castillo, in whole or in part, from criminal liability, criminal proceedings, conviction, sentence, or criminal penalties in connection with any criminal case.
A qualifying grant of clemency will resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of whether it is later challenged, revoked, annulled, or declared invalid.
Court rulings, acquittals, dismissals, legislative amnesties, prosecutorial decisions, prison transfers, releases from custody, or other actions that do not involve a formal presidential grant of clemency will not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Government of Peru. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$7,531Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jun 9, 2026, 7:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent official actions have reinforced trader expectations against a 2026 pardon. Peru’s Ministry of Justice Commission on Presidential Pardons has repeatedly declared Castillo’s clemency and humanitarian pardon requests inadmissible, including the sixth such filing in recent weeks. The transitional government publicly stated in February 2026 that no presidential clemency measures, including pardons, were under consideration or scheduled. These positions align with Castillo’s November 2025 sentencing to 11 years and five months for rebellion and conspiracy, followed by continued imprisonment at Barbadillo. Ongoing electoral dynamics, including the June 2026 runoff between candidates who have visited Castillo and conservative rivals, have not produced policy shifts favoring clemency. The market’s implied 17–18% probability for a pardon reflects this consistent institutional resistance and absence of enabling executive or legislative moves.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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