The People's Bank of China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, reinforced by resilient first-quarter 2026 growth and the April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.0% for the eleventh straight month, underpins the 98% market-implied probability of no change to the 7-day reverse repo rate in May. Recent official statements emphasize calibrating policy tools while keeping liquidity ample and social financing costs low, with no signs of imminent adjustments ahead of potential mid-month deliberations. This positioning aligns with reduced stimulus urgency amid fading deflationary pressures and external uncertainties such as Middle East developments. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity or a surge in inflation could still prompt a shift, though such moves would likely require clearer signals from upcoming data releases or Politburo guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtPeople's Bank of China rate change in May?
People's Bank of China rate change in May?
No Change 98.0%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
<1%
No Change
98%
Decrease
1%
No Change 98.0%
Decrease <1%
Increase <1%
MỚI
MỚI
May 31, 2026
Increase
$2,006 KL.
<1%
No Change
$2,024 KL.
98%
Decrease
$1,711 KL.
1%
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, reinforced by resilient first-quarter 2026 growth and the April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.0% for the eleventh straight month, underpins the 98% market-implied probability of no change to the 7-day reverse repo rate in May. Recent official statements emphasize calibrating policy tools while keeping liquidity ample and social financing costs low, with no signs of imminent adjustments ahead of potential mid-month deliberations. This positioning aligns with reduced stimulus urgency amid fading deflationary pressures and external uncertainties such as Middle East developments. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity or a surge in inflation could still prompt a shift, though such moves would likely require clearer signals from upcoming data releases or Politburo guidance.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
Khối lượng
$5,741Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.The People's Bank of China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, reinforced by resilient first-quarter 2026 growth and the April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.0% for the eleventh straight month, underpins the 98% market-implied probability of no change to the 7-day reverse repo rate in May. Recent official statements emphasize calibrating policy tools while keeping liquidity ample and social financing costs low, with no signs of imminent adjustments ahead of potential mid-month deliberations. This positioning aligns with reduced stimulus urgency amid fading deflationary pressures and external uncertainties such as Middle East developments. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity or a surge in inflation could still prompt a shift, though such moves would likely require clearer signals from upcoming data releases or Politburo guidance.
This market will resolve according to the first change made to the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) 7-day reverse repo rate between May 1 and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time (CST).
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
An “increase” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level higher than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
A “decrease” refers to any change in the 7-day reverse repo rate to a level lower than the most recent effective 7-day reverse repo rate.
If the People’s Bank of China does not change the 7-day reverse repo rate by May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM China Standard Time, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket.
An official announcement of a change to the PBoC 7-day Reverse Repo Rate within this market’s timeframe will be sufficient to resolve this market, regardless of when the rate change is stated to go into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the People’s Bank of China, including PBoC Open Market Operations announcements (https://www.pbc.gov.cn/en/3688110/3688181/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting on a change to the 7-day reverse repo rate may also be used.
Khối lượng
$5,741Ngày kết thúc
May 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The People's Bank of China’s commitment to a moderately loose monetary policy, reinforced by resilient first-quarter 2026 growth and the April decision to hold the one-year loan prime rate steady at 3.0% for the eleventh straight month, underpins the 98% market-implied probability of no change to the 7-day reverse repo rate in May. Recent official statements emphasize calibrating policy tools while keeping liquidity ample and social financing costs low, with no signs of imminent adjustments ahead of potential mid-month deliberations. This positioning aligns with reduced stimulus urgency amid fading deflationary pressures and external uncertainties such as Middle East developments. A sharper-than-expected slowdown in activity or a surge in inflation could still prompt a shift, though such moves would likely require clearer signals from upcoming data releases or Politburo guidance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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