Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor aligned with the Republicanos party, maintains a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling from firms such as Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel. Surveys conducted in March and April show him ahead of Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party, with margins that raise the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. PT strategists have expressed concern over the lack of a viable third candidate to force a runoff, while figures like Kim Kataguiri and potential PSDB contenders poll below 5 percent and appear positioned mainly to fragment opposition support. Erika Hilton and Márcio França register even lower support, reflecting limited coalition momentum at this stage. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and incumbency advantages ahead of the October election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtTarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.4%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 KL.
$26,317 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
82%
Kim Kataguiri
10%
Fernando Haddad
9%
Erika Hilton
2%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 82%
Kim Kataguiri 10.4%
Fernando Haddad 8.5%
Erika Hilton 1.9%
$26,317 KL.
$26,317 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,929 KL.
82%
Kim Kataguiri
$4,186 KL.
10%
Fernando Haddad
$3,970 KL.
9%
Erika Hilton
$3,589 KL.
2%
Márcio França
$2,644 KL.
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor aligned with the Republicanos party, maintains a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling from firms such as Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel. Surveys conducted in March and April show him ahead of Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party, with margins that raise the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. PT strategists have expressed concern over the lack of a viable third candidate to force a runoff, while figures like Kim Kataguiri and potential PSDB contenders poll below 5 percent and appear positioned mainly to fragment opposition support. Erika Hilton and Márcio França register even lower support, reflecting limited coalition momentum at this stage. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and incumbency advantages ahead of the October election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Thị trường mở: Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
Khối lượng
$26,317Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor aligned with the Republicanos party, maintains a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling from firms such as Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel. Surveys conducted in March and April show him ahead of Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party, with margins that raise the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. PT strategists have expressed concern over the lack of a viable third candidate to force a runoff, while figures like Kim Kataguiri and potential PSDB contenders poll below 5 percent and appear positioned mainly to fragment opposition support. Erika Hilton and Márcio França register even lower support, reflecting limited coalition momentum at this stage. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and incumbency advantages ahead of the October election.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Khối lượng
$26,317Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas, the incumbent governor aligned with the Republicanos party, maintains a commanding position in the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial race due to consistent double-digit leads in recent polling from firms such as Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, and AtlasIntel. Surveys conducted in March and April show him ahead of Fernando Haddad of the Workers’ Party, with margins that raise the prospect of a first-round victory on October 4. PT strategists have expressed concern over the lack of a viable third candidate to force a runoff, while figures like Kim Kataguiri and potential PSDB contenders poll below 5 percent and appear positioned mainly to fragment opposition support. Erika Hilton and Márcio França register even lower support, reflecting limited coalition momentum at this stage. Trader consensus reflects these polling trends and incumbency advantages ahead of the October election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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