The conclusion of the House Ethics Committee investigation following Rep. Tony Gonzales' resignation in mid-April has lowered the prospects for criminal charges by June 30. The panel lost jurisdiction after the Texas Republican stepped down amid allegations of sexual misconduct with a former staffer, ending its inquiry without public findings. No separate Department of Justice probe or indictment has been reported in the intervening weeks, leaving only the slim possibility of new developments such as additional complaints or federal review in the short window before the deadline. Traders therefore assign a modest edge to the "no" outcome, consistent with historical patterns where ethics matters rarely convert to swift criminal referrals once a member leaves office.