Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026, first-round presidential vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro endorsed him following the elder’s ineligibility. Recent polls, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual surveys from April and May, show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error in simulated runoff matchups at roughly 46-47 percent each, with a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO drawing single-digit support. This polarized contest and the absence of a clear first-round majority keep the likelihood of a Lula-Flávio runoff elevated among traders, who monitor economic indicators, potential endorsements from state governors, and candidate withdrawals as factors that could consolidate votes before the October 25 runoff date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$321,225 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Frietas
3%
$321,225 KL.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$135,114 KL.
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$20,621 KL.
72%
Fernando Haddad
$51,472 KL.
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$26,646 KL.
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
$11,325 KL.
3%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$76,048 KL.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026, first-round presidential vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro endorsed him following the elder’s ineligibility. Recent polls, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual surveys from April and May, show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error in simulated runoff matchups at roughly 46-47 percent each, with a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO drawing single-digit support. This polarized contest and the absence of a clear first-round majority keep the likelihood of a Lula-Flávio runoff elevated among traders, who monitor economic indicators, potential endorsements from state governors, and candidate withdrawals as factors that could consolidate votes before the October 25 runoff date.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ET
Khối lượng
$321,225Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026, first-round presidential vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro endorsed him following the elder’s ineligibility. Recent polls, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual surveys from April and May, show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error in simulated runoff matchups at roughly 46-47 percent each, with a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO drawing single-digit support. This polarized contest and the absence of a clear first-round majority keep the likelihood of a Lula-Flávio runoff elevated among traders, who monitor economic indicators, potential endorsements from state governors, and candidate withdrawals as factors that could consolidate votes before the October 25 runoff date.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$321,225Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Dec 8, 2025, 6:42 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party seeks a fourth term in Brazil’s October 4, 2026, first-round presidential vote, while Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party carries the opposition banner after his father Jair Bolsonaro endorsed him following the elder’s ineligibility. Recent polls, including Quaest, AtlasIntel, and BTG Pactual surveys from April and May, show the pair statistically tied or within the margin of error in simulated runoff matchups at roughly 46-47 percent each, with a fragmented field that includes Ronaldo Caiado of the PSD and Romeu Zema of NOVO drawing single-digit support. This polarized contest and the absence of a clear first-round majority keep the likelihood of a Lula-Flávio runoff elevated among traders, who monitor economic indicators, potential endorsements from state governors, and candidate withdrawals as factors that could consolidate votes before the October 25 runoff date.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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