Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$321,225 KL.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
72%
Fernando Haddad
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
3%
Tarcisio de Frietas
3%
$321,225 KL.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$135,114 KL.
84%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$20,621 KL.
72%
Fernando Haddad
$51,472 KL.
8%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$26,646 KL.
4%
Jair Bolsonaro
$11,325 KL.
3%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$76,048 KL.
3%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Thị trường mở: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Khối lượng
$321,225Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Khối lượng
$321,225Ngày kết thúc
Oct 4, 2026Thị trường mở
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth term in Brazil's October 4, 2026, general election, facing a consolidated right-wing challenge from Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, who carries his father's endorsement after Jair Bolsonaro's ineligibility. Recent first-round polls from Futura, Ideia, and Quaest place Lula at 38-40 percent and Flávio at 33-37 percent, with Ronaldo Caiado and Romeu Zema trailing at 4-6 percent amid 9-13 percent undecided. Simulated runoff matchups remain statistically tied, often within margins of error, reflecting economic conditions, voter concerns over crime, and institutional tensions including the Senate's rejection of Lula's Supreme Court nominee. A runoff on October 25 would advance the top two finishers under Brazil's majority-vote system.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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