Anthropic holds the market edge at 58.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Coding score by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases that lead contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and LiveCodeBench with scores above 95% in agentic coding tasks. These models benefit from Anthropic’s focus on large context windows, advanced reasoning chains, and iterative fine-tuning tailored to software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants that trail at roughly 29% amid tighter competition on raw generation metrics. Chinese open-weight challengers such as DeepSeek and Kimi K3 show strong SWE-bench results but lag in LiveBench’s refreshed objective tasks, while regulatory and deployment factors could still shift final standings before the October snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAnthropic 59%
OpenAI 29%
DeepSeek 2.8%
Mistral 2.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
59%
OpenAI
29%
DeepSeek
3%
Mistral
3%
Meta
2%
2%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
Nvidia
1%
Thinky
1%
MiniMax
1%
Baidu
1%
Meituan
<1%
Tencent
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
SpaceXAI
<1%
ByteDance
<1%
Alibaba
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Anthropic 59%
OpenAI 29%
DeepSeek 2.8%
Mistral 2.7%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Anthropic
$3,956 KL.
59%
OpenAI
$485 KL.
29%
DeepSeek
$113 KL.
3%
Mistral
$165 KL.
3%
Meta
$160 KL.
2%
$138 KL.
2%
Xiaomi
$182 KL.
1%
Amazon
$174 KL.
1%
Nvidia
$179 KL.
1%
Thinky
$179 KL.
1%
MiniMax
$164 KL.
1%
Baidu
$144 KL.
1%
Meituan
$113 KL.
<1%
Tencent
$134 KL.
<1%
Microsoft
$186 KL.
<1%
StepFun
$138 KL.
<1%
Z.ai
$151 KL.
<1%
SpaceXAI
$146 KL.
<1%
ByteDance
$133 KL.
<1%
Alibaba
$133 KL.
<1%
Moonshot
$153 KL.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market edge at 58.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Coding score by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases that lead contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and LiveCodeBench with scores above 95% in agentic coding tasks. These models benefit from Anthropic’s focus on large context windows, advanced reasoning chains, and iterative fine-tuning tailored to software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants that trail at roughly 29% amid tighter competition on raw generation metrics. Chinese open-weight challengers such as DeepSeek and Kimi K3 show strong SWE-bench results but lag in LiveBench’s refreshed objective tasks, while regulatory and deployment factors could still shift final standings before the October snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Thị trường mở: Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,320Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”Anthropic holds the market edge at 58.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Coding score by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases that lead contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and LiveCodeBench with scores above 95% in agentic coding tasks. These models benefit from Anthropic’s focus on large context windows, advanced reasoning chains, and iterative fine-tuning tailored to software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants that trail at roughly 29% amid tighter competition on raw generation metrics. Chinese open-weight challengers such as DeepSeek and Kimi K3 show strong SWE-bench results but lag in LiveBench’s refreshed objective tasks, while regulatory and deployment factors could still shift final standings before the October snapshot.
This market will resolve according to the company which owns the model with the highest Coding score on LiveBench.ai when the leaderboard is checked on October 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Results from the “Coding” column of the leaderboard at https://livebench.ai/#/?cats=Coding, with the latest available LiveBench release selected and the category set to “Coding,” will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ranked according to the specified score, with higher scores ranked ahead of lower scores. If two or more models have exactly the same score as displayed on the leaderboard, the model with the lower listed "cost per successful task" will be ranked ahead. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact score and cost per successful task, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the LiveBench leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to “Other.”
Khối lượng
$7,320Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 12, 2026, 8:05 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic holds the market edge at 58.5% implied probability for the top LiveBench Coding score by end of October 2026, driven by its recent Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 releases that lead contamination-resistant benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified and LiveCodeBench with scores above 95% in agentic coding tasks. These models benefit from Anthropic’s focus on large context windows, advanced reasoning chains, and iterative fine-tuning tailored to software engineering workflows, outpacing OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 Sol variants that trail at roughly 29% amid tighter competition on raw generation metrics. Chinese open-weight challengers such as DeepSeek and Kimi K3 show strong SWE-bench results but lag in LiveBench’s refreshed objective tasks, while regulatory and deployment factors could still shift final standings before the October snapshot.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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