**Traders assign a 99.2% probability to “No” because Iran’s constitution sets presidential terms at four years, with the most recent vote electing Masoud Pezeshkian in July 2024 and the next regular contest scheduled for 2028.** No vacancy has been formally created through death, confirmed resignation, or incapacity, and the Guardian Council has issued no timetable or candidate-vetting process for a snap vote. Recent reports of Pezeshkian offering resignation amid reported tensions with IRGC commanders remain unconfirmed by official channels, and even if accepted, the required steps—formal vacancy declaration, candidate registration, vetting, and polling—cannot realistically conclude before June 30. Ongoing regional conflict and leadership transition after the February 2026 assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei have not altered the presidential succession rules or produced any public announcement of early elections. The near-certain trader consensus therefore reflects the absence of any constitutional trigger or procedural signal within the narrow remaining window. The only realistic developments that could still shift odds are an abrupt, officially verified vacancy combined with an expedited Guardian Council schedule, neither of which has materialized.