Ukrainian counteroffensives under Operation Vivaldi have driven recent territorial recoveries near Borova in Kharkiv Oblast, with forces pushing Russian positions back toward the Oskil and Zherebets rivers while repelling assaults in the Borova and Lyman directions. ISW assessments through late September 2026 show no confirmed Russian advances or control gains around the town, contradicting earlier Russian claims of encirclements or seizures. Trader consensus on a low probability of Russian capture by year-end aligns with these battlefield dynamics, including Ukrainian consolidation of frontline areas and ongoing pressure on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces. Scheduled developments such as potential winter offensives or shifts in artillery and drone activity could influence momentum, though sustained Ukrainian defensive posture and resource allocation remain key variables.