**Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock’s displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent nature of revisions to its underlying carbon-budget calculation.** The clock derives its countdown from the remaining atmospheric carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, based primarily on the IPCC AR6 physical-science assessment from 2021 and ongoing estimates from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute. This budget—recently cited near 130 GtCO₂ at the start of 2026 at prevailing emission rates of roughly 42 GtCO₂ per year—projects exhaustion around 2029–2030 under current trends, with the clock last notably updated in late 2023. Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C in 2025 and record or near-record annual temperatures, alongside continued high or rising global emissions without sharp mitigation breakthroughs. These conditions reinforce rather than revise the existing budget trajectory. Authoritative updates capable of shifting the displayed deadline require major new assessments from bodies like the IPCC or Global Carbon Project, which are not scheduled to deliver budget revisions on a timeline that would alter the clock before the end of 2026. While shorter-term temperature records, El Niño influences, and model runs introduce variability, they do not directly recalibrate the multi-decadal carbon-budget framework the clock uses. Trader consensus therefore views near-term stability in the published deadline as the most probable outcome, given the slow pace of scientific consensus updates on this metric.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 1, 2027
12% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock’s displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent nature of revisions to its underlying carbon-budget calculation.** The clock derives its countdown from the remaining atmospheric carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, based primarily on the IPCC AR6 physical-science assessment from 2021 and ongoing estimates from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute. This budget—recently cited near 130 GtCO₂ at the start of 2026 at prevailing emission rates of roughly 42 GtCO₂ per year—projects exhaustion around 2029–2030 under current trends, with the clock last notably updated in late 2023.
Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C in 2025 and record or near-record annual temperatures, alongside continued high or rising global emissions without sharp mitigation breakthroughs. These conditions reinforce rather than revise the existing budget trajectory. Authoritative updates capable of shifting the displayed deadline require major new assessments from bodies like the IPCC or Global Carbon Project, which are not scheduled to deliver budget revisions on a timeline that would alter the clock before the end of 2026. While shorter-term temperature records, El Niño influences, and model runs introduce variability, they do not directly recalibrate the multi-decadal carbon-budget framework the clock uses. Trader consensus therefore views near-term stability in the published deadline as the most probable outcome, given the slow pace of scientific consensus updates on this metric.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Thị trường mở: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,857Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2029Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock’s displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent nature of revisions to its underlying carbon-budget calculation.** The clock derives its countdown from the remaining atmospheric carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, based primarily on the IPCC AR6 physical-science assessment from 2021 and ongoing estimates from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute. This budget—recently cited near 130 GtCO₂ at the start of 2026 at prevailing emission rates of roughly 42 GtCO₂ per year—projects exhaustion around 2029–2030 under current trends, with the clock last notably updated in late 2023.
Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C in 2025 and record or near-record annual temperatures, alongside continued high or rising global emissions without sharp mitigation breakthroughs. These conditions reinforce rather than revise the existing budget trajectory. Authoritative updates capable of shifting the displayed deadline require major new assessments from bodies like the IPCC or Global Carbon Project, which are not scheduled to deliver budget revisions on a timeline that would alter the clock before the end of 2026. While shorter-term temperature records, El Niño influences, and model runs introduce variability, they do not directly recalibrate the multi-decadal carbon-budget framework the clock uses. Trader consensus therefore views near-term stability in the published deadline as the most probable outcome, given the slow pace of scientific consensus updates on this metric.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Khối lượng
$7,857Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders assign an 88.5% implied probability that the Climate Clock’s displayed 1.5°C deadline will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, reflecting the infrequent nature of revisions to its underlying carbon-budget calculation.** The clock derives its countdown from the remaining atmospheric carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, based primarily on the IPCC AR6 physical-science assessment from 2021 and ongoing estimates from sources such as the Mercator Research Institute. This budget—recently cited near 130 GtCO₂ at the start of 2026 at prevailing emission rates of roughly 42 GtCO₂ per year—projects exhaustion around 2029–2030 under current trends, with the clock last notably updated in late 2023. Recent observational data show human-induced warming at approximately 1.37°C in 2025 and record or near-record annual temperatures, alongside continued high or rising global emissions without sharp mitigation breakthroughs. These conditions reinforce rather than revise the existing budget trajectory. Authoritative updates capable of shifting the displayed deadline require major new assessments from bodies like the IPCC or Global Carbon Project, which are not scheduled to deliver budget revisions on a timeline that would alter the clock before the end of 2026. While shorter-term temperature records, El Niño influences, and model runs introduce variability, they do not directly recalibrate the multi-decadal carbon-budget framework the clock uses. Trader consensus therefore views near-term stability in the published deadline as the most probable outcome, given the slow pace of scientific consensus updates on this metric.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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