**Traders see an 84.5% chance the displayed 1.5°C deadline on the Climate Clock will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, because the clock’s inputs—primarily the remaining carbon budget and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—update infrequently and have shown limited movement in recent assessments.** The main versions of the clock (including the Human Impact Lab/Concordia project tied to the New York Metronome installation) recalculate the deadline annually or quarterly using the latest Global Carbon Project data, emissions trajectories, and carbon-budget estimates from sources such as the IPCC SR1.5 framework and subsequent updates. As of March 2026, one prominent clock projected a July 2029 deadline; other trackers place the 50% likelihood exhaustion of the ~130 GtCO₂ remaining budget near 2029 at current ~40 GtCO₂ annual rates. Recent developments reinforce stability through year-end. Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions reached record levels in 2025 and continued rising modestly into 2026, while 2024 marked the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C in multiple surface-temperature datasets, though the long-term (20–30 year) human-induced warming average remains below the formal threshold. A developing strong El Niño in 2026 may temporarily boost temperatures but does not alter cumulative emissions or the underlying budget used by the clock. No major downward revision to the budget or abrupt emissions drop sufficient to shift the displayed date has occurred since the last update, and none is expected before December given current policy and economic trajectories. The market-implied odds therefore reflect the low likelihood of a meaningful revision to the clock’s parameters in the remaining months of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtWill the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
Will the Climate Clock's 1.5°C deadline change by...?
16% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 1, 2027
16% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Jan 1, 2027
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Traders see an 84.5% chance the displayed 1.5°C deadline on the Climate Clock will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, because the clock’s inputs—primarily the remaining carbon budget and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—update infrequently and have shown limited movement in recent assessments.**
The main versions of the clock (including the Human Impact Lab/Concordia project tied to the New York Metronome installation) recalculate the deadline annually or quarterly using the latest Global Carbon Project data, emissions trajectories, and carbon-budget estimates from sources such as the IPCC SR1.5 framework and subsequent updates. As of March 2026, one prominent clock projected a July 2029 deadline; other trackers place the 50% likelihood exhaustion of the ~130 GtCO₂ remaining budget near 2029 at current ~40 GtCO₂ annual rates.
Recent developments reinforce stability through year-end. Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions reached record levels in 2025 and continued rising modestly into 2026, while 2024 marked the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C in multiple surface-temperature datasets, though the long-term (20–30 year) human-induced warming average remains below the formal threshold. A developing strong El Niño in 2026 may temporarily boost temperatures but does not alter cumulative emissions or the underlying budget used by the clock. No major downward revision to the budget or abrupt emissions drop sufficient to shift the displayed date has occurred since the last update, and none is expected before December given current policy and economic trajectories.
The market-implied odds therefore reflect the low likelihood of a meaningful revision to the clock’s parameters in the remaining months of 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Thị trường mở: Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ET
Khối lượng
$7,857Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2029Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.**Traders see an 84.5% chance the displayed 1.5°C deadline on the Climate Clock will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, because the clock’s inputs—primarily the remaining carbon budget and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—update infrequently and have shown limited movement in recent assessments.**
The main versions of the clock (including the Human Impact Lab/Concordia project tied to the New York Metronome installation) recalculate the deadline annually or quarterly using the latest Global Carbon Project data, emissions trajectories, and carbon-budget estimates from sources such as the IPCC SR1.5 framework and subsequent updates. As of March 2026, one prominent clock projected a July 2029 deadline; other trackers place the 50% likelihood exhaustion of the ~130 GtCO₂ remaining budget near 2029 at current ~40 GtCO₂ annual rates.
Recent developments reinforce stability through year-end. Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions reached record levels in 2025 and continued rising modestly into 2026, while 2024 marked the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C in multiple surface-temperature datasets, though the long-term (20–30 year) human-induced warming average remains below the formal threshold. A developing strong El Niño in 2026 may temporarily boost temperatures but does not alter cumulative emissions or the underlying budget used by the clock. No major downward revision to the budget or abrupt emissions drop sufficient to shift the displayed date has occurred since the last update, and none is expected before December given current policy and economic trajectories.
The market-implied odds therefore reflect the low likelihood of a meaningful revision to the clock’s parameters in the remaining months of 2026.
Each market asks whether the “Deadline” to limit global warming to 1.5°C shown by the Climate Clock (https://climateclock.world) will change before that market's listed date.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
A market resolves to “Yes” if, at any point on or before its listed date, 11:59 PM ET, the Climate Clock's published 1.5°C Deadline is more than 30 days earlier or more than 30 days later than July 22, 2029. Otherwise, that market resolves to “No”.
The Climate Clock's 1.5°C Deadline is published as a machine-readable timestamp in its public data feed at https://api.climateclock.world/v2/clock.json (the “timestamp” value of the carbon-deadline module), which is the same target the on-site countdown at https://climateclock.world displays. As of this market's creation, that Deadline is July 22, 2029 (timestamp 2029-07-22T16:00:00+00:00). The ordinary second-by-second ticking of the countdown toward the Deadline does not constitute a change; only a change to the published Deadline date itself qualifies.
Because a qualifying change is permanent once published, every market with a listed date on or after the change will resolve “Yes”, and markets whose listed date has already passed without a qualifying change will have resolved “No”. If the Climate Clock and its public data feed both become permanently unavailable before a qualifying change is published, all unresolved markets will resolve to “No”.
Khối lượng
$7,857Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Aug 19, 2026, 6:40 PM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://climateclock.worldResolver
0x65070BE91...**Traders see an 84.5% chance the displayed 1.5°C deadline on the Climate Clock will remain unchanged through December 31, 2026, because the clock’s inputs—primarily the remaining carbon budget and observed global CO₂ emissions trends—update infrequently and have shown limited movement in recent assessments.** The main versions of the clock (including the Human Impact Lab/Concordia project tied to the New York Metronome installation) recalculate the deadline annually or quarterly using the latest Global Carbon Project data, emissions trajectories, and carbon-budget estimates from sources such as the IPCC SR1.5 framework and subsequent updates. As of March 2026, one prominent clock projected a July 2029 deadline; other trackers place the 50% likelihood exhaustion of the ~130 GtCO₂ remaining budget near 2029 at current ~40 GtCO₂ annual rates. Recent developments reinforce stability through year-end. Fossil-fuel CO₂ emissions reached record levels in 2025 and continued rising modestly into 2026, while 2024 marked the first calendar year exceeding 1.5°C in multiple surface-temperature datasets, though the long-term (20–30 year) human-induced warming average remains below the formal threshold. A developing strong El Niño in 2026 may temporarily boost temperatures but does not alter cumulative emissions or the underlying budget used by the clock. No major downward revision to the budget or abrupt emissions drop sufficient to shift the displayed date has occurred since the last update, and none is expected before December given current policy and economic trajectories. The market-implied odds therefore reflect the low likelihood of a meaningful revision to the clock’s parameters in the remaining months of 2026.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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