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icon for 在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？
政治·巴西

在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？

icon for 在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？
政治·巴西

在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$71,164 交易量

是

7% 機率
Polymarket

$71,164 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices face a high bar for impeachment under the constitution, which requires formal initiation by the prosecutor-general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority—thresholds never met for removal in the court's history. Despite dozens of opposition petitions since 2021, many targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and an April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report recommending proceedings against Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, Senate leadership has declined to advance any case. A late-2025 STF ruling further limited congressional petitions by confirming the prosecutor-general's exclusive role. These structural and institutional factors sustain trader expectations that no justice will be removed before 2027, even as 2026 Senate elections could alter political alignments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$71,164
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Brazil's Supreme Federal Court (STF) justices face a high bar for impeachment under the constitution, which requires formal initiation by the prosecutor-general and approval by a two-thirds Senate majority—thresholds never met for removal in the court's history. Despite dozens of opposition petitions since 2021, many targeting Justice Alexandre de Moraes, and an April 2026 congressional inquiry commission report recommending proceedings against Gilmar Mendes, Dias Toffoli, and de Moraes over the Banco Master scandal, Senate leadership has declined to advance any case. A late-2025 STF ruling further limited congressional petitions by confirming the prosecutor-general's exclusive role. These structural and institutional factors sustain trader expectations that no justice will be removed before 2027, even as 2026 Senate elections could alter political alignments.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count.

Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$71,164
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jan 8, 2026, 1:14 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any justice of the Brazil Supreme Federal Court (STF) is permanently removed from the court as a result of impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Justices leaving the court due to term limits, voluntary resignation, or any other reason not resulting from impeachment or a trial for a crime of responsibility will not count. Impeachments, trials for crimes of responsibility, suspensions, or other procedural measures will not alone suffice to resolve this market if they do not result in the permanent removal of a justice from the Brazil Supreme Federal Court. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of Brazil; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "在2027年之前，有任何巴西最高聯邦法院大法官因彈劾被罷免嗎？" at 7%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 7¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 7% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" has generated $71.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 8, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" is "在2027年之前，有任何巴西最高聯邦法院大法官因彈劾被罷免嗎？" at just 7%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "在2027年之前，巴西STF是否因彈劾而被移除？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.