Traders assign an 84% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 policy rate, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in late April amid March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year. Energy price pass-through from the Middle East conflict has driven the upside surprise in transport and household costs, yet slowing regular wage growth to a five-year low of 3.6% and spare labor market capacity have limited second-round risks. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture lingering upside inflation risks flagged by Governor Bailey, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore inflation remaining well above the 2% target. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and May labor data, will shape expectations ahead of the meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於未有變動 85%
上調25個基點 15%
上調50個基點以上 <1%
下調超過50個基點 <1%
$145,289 交易量
$145,289 交易量
下調超過50個基點
<1%
下調25個基點
<1%
未有變動
85%
上調25個基點
15%
上調50個基點以上
1%
未有變動 85%
上調25個基點 15%
上調50個基點以上 <1%
下調超過50個基點 <1%
$145,289 交易量
$145,289 交易量
下調超過50個基點
<1%
下調25個基點
<1%
未有變動
85%
上調25個基點
15%
上調50個基點以上
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the Bank Rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of England's June 2026 meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of England (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the Bank Rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of England's statement for their June meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the start date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 84% implied probability to no change in the Bank of England’s June 18 policy rate, reflecting the Monetary Policy Committee’s 8-1 vote to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% in late April amid March CPI inflation rising to 3.3% year-over-year. Energy price pass-through from the Middle East conflict has driven the upside surprise in transport and household costs, yet slowing regular wage growth to a five-year low of 3.6% and spare labor market capacity have limited second-round risks. The modest 14.5% odds on a 25 basis point hike capture lingering upside inflation risks flagged by Governor Bailey, while near-zero probabilities for cuts underscore inflation remaining well above the 2% target. Key upcoming releases, including April CPI and May labor data, will shape expectations ahead of the meeting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions