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icon for 加州罷免選舉改革提案

加州罷免選舉改革提案

icon for 加州罷免選舉改革提案

加州罷免選舉改革提案

0% 機率
Polymarket
最新

0% 機率
Polymarket
最新
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California Proposition 5, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate simultaneous successor elections in state officer recalls, leaving vacancies to be filled later under existing law while allowing recalled officials to run again. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 58.5% reflects divided views on recall mechanics, with endorsements from groups such as the League of Women Voters and Secretary of State Shirley Weber emphasizing procedural fairness and cost savings, countered by opposition from organizations including the Election Integrity Project California and Reform California that argue the change weakens voter accountability tools. Limited early polling and the measure’s focus on high-profile past recalls continue to shape positioning ahead of the general election.

Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$20
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).California Proposition 5, a legislatively referred constitutional amendment on the November 3, 2026 ballot, would eliminate simultaneous successor elections in state officer recalls, leaving vacancies to be filled later under existing law while allowing recalled officials to run again. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 58.5% reflects divided views on recall mechanics, with endorsements from groups such as the League of Women Voters and Secretary of State Shirley Weber emphasizing procedural fairness and cost savings, countered by opposition from organizations including the Election Integrity Project California and Reform California that argue the change weakens voter accountability tools. Limited early polling and the measure’s focus on high-profile past recalls continue to shape positioning ahead of the general election.

Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).
交易量
$20
結束日期
2026-11-03
市場開放時間
Jul 1, 2026, 6:32 PM ET
Proposition 5 is a California ballot measure currently scheduled for voting on November 3, 2026. It would eliminate the election to pick a successor immediately after a recall. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the specified ballot measure is approved by a majority of voters at the California statewide general election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” If voting on the specified ballot measure does not occur, or the results thereof are not known definitively, by March 31, 2027, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the State of California, including the California Secretary of State (https://www.sos.ca.gov/).

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"加州罷免選舉改革提案" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "加州罷免選舉改革提案" at 44%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 44¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"加州罷免選舉改革提案" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "加州罷免選舉改革提案," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "加州罷免選舉改革提案" is "加州罷免選舉改革提案" at 44%, meaning the market assigns a 44% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "加州罷免選舉改革提案" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.