Recent weak eurozone GDP data and energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 annual growth rate. First-quarter expansion slowed to 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting downward revisions to full-year forecasts that now cluster near 1.0%. The ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters places real GDP growth at 1.0% for 2026 while lifting headline inflation expectations to 2.7%, highlighting stagflation risks that support the market-implied 69.5% probability for the 1.0-2.0% outcome. Persistent energy supply constraints and potential further monetary tightening remain key swing factors that could shift consensus if growth disappoints or inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.8%
2.0-3.0% 10%
低於0% 7.2%
低於0%
14%
0-1.0%
36%
1.0-2.0%
70%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
3%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%以上
3%
1.0-2.0% 70%
3.0-4.0% 20.8%
2.0-3.0% 10%
低於0% 7.2%
低於0%
14%
0-1.0%
36%
1.0-2.0%
70%
2.0-3.0%
10%
3.0-4.0%
21%
4.0-5.0%
4%
5.0-6.0%
3%
6.0-7.0%
1%
7.0%以上
3%
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent weak eurozone GDP data and energy price shocks from the Middle East conflict have shaped trader sentiment around the 2026 annual growth rate. First-quarter expansion slowed to 0.1% quarter-over-quarter and 0.8% year-over-year, prompting downward revisions to full-year forecasts that now cluster near 1.0%. The ECB’s latest Survey of Professional Forecasters places real GDP growth at 1.0% for 2026 while lifting headline inflation expectations to 2.7%, highlighting stagflation risks that support the market-implied 69.5% probability for the 1.0-2.0% outcome. Persistent energy supply constraints and potential further monetary tightening remain key swing factors that could shift consensus if growth disappoints or inflation moderates faster than anticipated.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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警惕外部連結哦。
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