Elevated inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—shifted market-implied odds away from earlier anticipated cuts toward a higher probability of no change or modest tightening. Solid labor market conditions, with steady job gains and low unemployment, have further reduced pressure for easing while supporting the current restrictive stance. Recent CPI readings show modest core moderation but headline persistence above goal, keeping the market-implied path biased toward stability through October. Key upcoming data on inflation and employment, plus the September FOMC, will likely influence any last adjustments in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變化 72%
上調25個基點 24%
下調25個基點 4.3%
下調超過50個基點 1.6%
$643,686 交易量
$643,686 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
2%
下調25個基點
4%
無變化
72%
上調25個基點
24%
上調50個基點以上
1%
無變化 72%
上調25個基點 24%
下調25個基點 4.3%
下調超過50個基點 1.6%
$643,686 交易量
$643,686 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
$125,593 交易量
2%
下調25個基點
$187,684 交易量
4%
無變化
$139,170 交易量
72%
上調25個基點
$134,344 交易量
24%
上調50個基點以上
$56,894 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—shifted market-implied odds away from earlier anticipated cuts toward a higher probability of no change or modest tightening. Solid labor market conditions, with steady job gains and low unemployment, have further reduced pressure for easing while supporting the current restrictive stance. Recent CPI readings show modest core moderation but headline persistence above goal, keeping the market-implied path biased toward stability through October. Key upcoming data on inflation and employment, plus the September FOMC, will likely influence any last adjustments in these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$643,686結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—shifted market-implied odds away from earlier anticipated cuts toward a higher probability of no change or modest tightening. Solid labor market conditions, with steady job gains and low unemployment, have further reduced pressure for easing while supporting the current restrictive stance. Recent CPI readings show modest core moderation but headline persistence above goal, keeping the market-implied path biased toward stability through October. Key upcoming data on inflation and employment, plus the September FOMC, will likely influence any last adjustments in these probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$643,686結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation relative to the Fed’s 2% target, reinforced by energy price shocks from Middle East tensions, remains the dominant factor anchoring trader expectations for the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. The July decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75%—with three dissents favoring a 25 basis point hike—shifted market-implied odds away from earlier anticipated cuts toward a higher probability of no change or modest tightening. Solid labor market conditions, with steady job gains and low unemployment, have further reduced pressure for easing while supporting the current restrictive stance. Recent CPI readings show modest core moderation but headline persistence above goal, keeping the market-implied path biased toward stability through October. Key upcoming data on inflation and employment, plus the September FOMC, will likely influence any last adjustments in these probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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