The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,038 交易量
$49,038 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
1%
Other
3%
Pause–Pause–Pause 93%
Pause–Pause–Cut 4.5%
Other 3.4%
Pause–Cut–Pause <1%
$49,038 交易量
$49,038 交易量
2026-07-29
Pause–Pause–Pause
$2,602 交易量
93%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$1,665 交易量
4%
Pause–Cut–Pause
$1,568 交易量
1%
Pause–Cut–Cut
$1,622 交易量
1%
Other
$1,595 交易量
3%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
交易量
$49,038結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmThe dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
交易量
$49,038結束日期
2026-07-29市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The dominant Pause–Pause–Pause outcome at 93% in the Fed decisions market reflects traders’ assessment that persistent inflation pressures and a resilient labor market will keep the Federal Open Market Committee on hold through the June and July meetings. Recent data show headline CPI and core measures reaccelerating above 3%, driven by elevated energy prices amid Middle East developments, while April’s jobs report and subsequent indicators confirm unemployment near 4.3% and steady payroll growth. This combination has shifted market-implied odds sharply toward no policy adjustment, consistent with the April 29 statement that held the federal funds rate at 3.5–3.75% and signaled data dependence. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 16–17 FOMC meeting and its updated Summary of Economic Projections. A sharper-than-expected cooling in inflation or sudden labor-market deterioration could still reopen the door to earlier cuts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions