Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and core inflation readings remaining above the 2% target, markets now assign roughly 31.5% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike before the December 2026 FOMC meeting. This contrasts with the March dot plot's median projection for one cut, as resilient labor market conditions and upside inflation risks from ongoing supply pressures outweigh earlier expectations for easing. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC, May CPI release, and subsequent PCE readings for confirmation of whether policy will pivot from hold to hike.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$1,104,056 交易量
$1,104,056 交易量
2026-12-09
是
$1,104,056 交易量
$1,104,056 交易量
2026-12-09
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and core inflation readings remaining above the 2% target, markets now assign roughly 31.5% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike before the December 2026 FOMC meeting. This contrasts with the March dot plot's median projection for one cut, as resilient labor market conditions and upside inflation risks from ongoing supply pressures outweigh earlier expectations for easing. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC, May CPI release, and subsequent PCE readings for confirmation of whether policy will pivot from hold to hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$1,104,056結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and core inflation readings remaining above the 2% target, markets now assign roughly 31.5% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike before the December 2026 FOMC meeting. This contrasts with the March dot plot's median projection for one cut, as resilient labor market conditions and upside inflation risks from ongoing supply pressures outweigh earlier expectations for easing. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC, May CPI release, and subsequent PCE readings for confirmation of whether policy will pivot from hold to hike.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$1,104,056結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent April 2026 CPI data showing a 3.8% year-over-year increase, driven by elevated energy prices amid geopolitical tensions, has shifted trader sentiment toward greater odds of a Federal Reserve rate hike later this year. With the federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% and core inflation readings remaining above the 2% target, markets now assign roughly 31.5% implied probability to at least one 25-basis-point hike before the December 2026 FOMC meeting. This contrasts with the March dot plot's median projection for one cut, as resilient labor market conditions and upside inflation risks from ongoing supply pressures outweigh earlier expectations for easing. Traders are closely watching the June FOMC, May CPI release, and subsequent PCE readings for confirmation of whether policy will pivot from hold to hike.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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