**Trader sentiment for Beijing's July 5 maximum temperature centers on uncertainty in short-term forecast models regarding thunderstorm timing and coverage.** Current guidance from regional models shows scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover persisting into July 5, which typically caps daytime highs by 2–4 °C through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This keeps the market-implied distribution tightly clustered around 29–31 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 31–32 °C and recent observed maxima near 35–36 °C under clearer conditions. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on precise rainfall onset, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for 32–33 °C or sustain overcast skies for 28–29 °C. Official Beijing station readings at 14:00 local time will resolve the market, with traders weighing ensemble spread in the latest model runs for any shifts in convective timing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?
Highest temperature in Beijing on July 5?
31°C 26%
32°C 21.9%
30°C 22%
29°C 12%
最新
$16,782 交易量
最新
$16,782 交易量
2026-07-05
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
1%
28°C
2%
29°C
12%
30°C
22%
31°C
26%
32°C
22%
33°C
9%
34°C
4%
35°C or higher
2%
31°C 26%
32°C 21.9%
30°C 22%
29°C 12%
最新
$16,782 交易量
最新
$16,782 交易量
2026-07-05
25°C or below
$2,478 交易量
<1%
26°C
$1,295 交易量
<1%
27°C
$815 交易量
1%
28°C
$1,510 交易量
2%
29°C
$1,897 交易量
12%
30°C
$1,759 交易量
22%
31°C
$916 交易量
26%
32°C
$984 交易量
22%
33°C
$922 交易量
9%
34°C
$1,233 交易量
4%
35°C or higher
$3,376 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Beijing's July 5 maximum temperature centers on uncertainty in short-term forecast models regarding thunderstorm timing and coverage.** Current guidance from regional models shows scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover persisting into July 5, which typically caps daytime highs by 2–4 °C through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This keeps the market-implied distribution tightly clustered around 29–31 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 31–32 °C and recent observed maxima near 35–36 °C under clearer conditions. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on precise rainfall onset, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for 32–33 °C or sustain overcast skies for 28–29 °C. Official Beijing station readings at 14:00 local time will resolve the market, with traders weighing ensemble spread in the latest model runs for any shifts in convective timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$16,782結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader sentiment for Beijing's July 5 maximum temperature centers on uncertainty in short-term forecast models regarding thunderstorm timing and coverage.** Current guidance from regional models shows scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover persisting into July 5, which typically caps daytime highs by 2–4 °C through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This keeps the market-implied distribution tightly clustered around 29–31 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 31–32 °C and recent observed maxima near 35–36 °C under clearer conditions. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on precise rainfall onset, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for 32–33 °C or sustain overcast skies for 28–29 °C. Official Beijing station readings at 14:00 local time will resolve the market, with traders weighing ensemble spread in the latest model runs for any shifts in convective timing.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$16,782結束日期
2026-07-05市場開放時間
Jul 3, 2026, 12:03 AM ET**Trader sentiment for Beijing's July 5 maximum temperature centers on uncertainty in short-term forecast models regarding thunderstorm timing and coverage.** Current guidance from regional models shows scattered thunderstorms and cloud cover persisting into July 5, which typically caps daytime highs by 2–4 °C through reduced solar insolation and evaporative cooling. This keeps the market-implied distribution tightly clustered around 29–31 °C, consistent with climatological July averages of 31–32 °C and recent observed maxima near 35–36 °C under clearer conditions. Differentiation among the leading bins hinges on precise rainfall onset, boundary-layer moisture, and steering flow that could either allow brief clearing for 32–33 °C or sustain overcast skies for 28–29 °C. Official Beijing station readings at 14:00 local time will resolve the market, with traders weighing ensemble spread in the latest model runs for any shifts in convective timing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions