Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月16日開普敦最高溫度？
7月16日開普敦最高溫度？
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-07-16
14°C或以下
<1%
15°C
3%
16°C
4%
17°C
16%
18°C
34%
19°C
31%
20°C
15%
21°C
5%
22°C
1%
23°C
<1%
24°C或更高
<1%
18°C 34%
19°C 31%
17°C 16%
20°C 15%
最新
最新
2026-07-16
14°C或以下
$140 交易量
<1%
15°C
$80 交易量
3%
16°C
$91 交易量
4%
17°C
$311 交易量
16%
18°C
$228 交易量
34%
19°C
$647 交易量
31%
20°C
$364 交易量
15%
21°C
$353 交易量
5%
22°C
$51 交易量
1%
23°C
$552 交易量
<1%
24°C或更高
$337 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
交易量
$3,153結束日期
2026-07-16市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$3,153結束日期
2026-07-16市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 1:03 AM ETTraders assign the highest implied probabilities to 18–20°C outcomes for Cape Town’s July 16 maximum because mid-winter climatology, shaped by the cold Benguela Current and frequent Atlantic cold fronts, typically produces daytime highs near 17°C. Recent South African Weather Service guidance and model consensus show a mild ridge building after earlier fog and brisk onshore flow, supporting modest warming of 1–3°C above average while limiting further gains. Ensemble spreads arise mainly from small differences in predicted cloud cover, wind mixing, and frontal timing, which can shift the daily peak by a degree or two. With resolution hinging on official South African Weather Service observations, the tight clustering around 18–20°C reflects uncertainty in the final 48-hour forecast adjustments rather than any single dominant driver.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions