Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月16日上海最低溫度？
7月16日上海最低溫度？
28°C 43%
29°C 39%
27°C 13%
30°C 6.9%
最新
最新
2026-07-16
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
4%
27°C
13%
28°C
43%
29°C
39%
30°C
7%
31°C
1%
32°C
<1%
33°C或以上
<1%
28°C 43%
29°C 39%
27°C 13%
30°C 6.9%
最新
最新
2026-07-16
23°C或以下
$229 交易量
<1%
24°C
$289 交易量
<1%
25°C
$236 交易量
<1%
26°C
$43 交易量
4%
27°C
$124 交易量
13%
28°C
$84 交易量
43%
29°C
$144 交易量
39%
30°C
$73 交易量
7%
31°C
$314 交易量
1%
32°C
$256 交易量
<1%
33°C或以上
$559 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$2,351結束日期
2026-07-16市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,351結束日期
2026-07-16市場開放時間
Jul 14, 2026, 12:30 AM ETTraders see 28–29°C as the most likely minimum temperature in Shanghai on July 16 because ensemble forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models currently cluster around that range for the overnight period. Shanghai’s subtropical monsoon climate features high humidity that limits nocturnal radiative cooling, while urban heat-island effects and light southerly flow keep lows elevated compared with rural surroundings. Recent model runs show modest disagreement on the timing of any passing showers, which could either suppress or enhance cooling depending on cloud cover. Historical July climatology places average overnight lows near 26–28°C, so the tightly matched market probabilities reflect both the narrow forecast spread and the inherent uncertainty in short-range temperature guidance just two days out. New model cycles and official China Meteorological Administration updates will provide the next clear signals.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions