Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日東京氣溫最高？
8月4日東京氣溫最高？
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
2%
26°C
6%
27°C
20%
28°C
30%
29°C
29%
30°C
13%
31°C
5%
32°C or higher
3%
28°C 30%
29°C 29%
27°C 20%
30°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
22°C or below
$419 交易量
<1%
23°C
$409 交易量
<1%
24°C
$499 交易量
<1%
25°C
$20 交易量
2%
26°C
$36 交易量
6%
27°C
$160 交易量
20%
28°C
$249 交易量
30%
29°C
$24 交易量
29%
30°C
$223 交易量
13%
31°C
$477 交易量
5%
32°C or higher
$10 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
交易量
$2,525結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Japan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,525結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:03 AM ETJapan Meteorological Agency seasonal outlooks indicate above-normal temperatures across Japan for summer 2026, driven by a stronger Pacific High, yet short-term model guidance for early August points to moderating conditions in Tokyo with possible cloud cover and variable onshore flow limiting peaks. Historical August maxima average near 31.8°C, but day-to-day variability from humidity, urban heat retention, and steering patterns often produces ranges of 27–30°C. With market-implied probabilities tightly clustered on 28–29°C, traders appear focused on these near-term factors over the broader warm anomaly, as updated forecast runs and observational data from the Japan Meteorological Agency will refine resolution thresholds in coming days.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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