Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
8月4日馬尼拉的最高溫度？
28°C 31%
29°C 26%
30°C 18%
27°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
23°C或以下
<1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
11%
27°C
13%
28°C
31%
29°C
26%
30°C
18%
31°C
11%
32°C
6%
33°C或更高
1%
28°C 31%
29°C 26%
30°C 18%
27°C 13%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
23°C或以下
$0 交易量
<1%
24°C
$5 交易量
1%
25°C
$28 交易量
6%
26°C
$0 交易量
11%
27°C
$0 交易量
13%
28°C
$0 交易量
31%
29°C
$0 交易量
26%
30°C
$0 交易量
18%
31°C
$0 交易量
11%
32°C
$13 交易量
6%
33°C或更高
$21 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
交易量
$67結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$67結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETRecent PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila point to a 31°C high on August 4 amid the southwest monsoon, yet market-implied odds cluster tightly around 28–29°C. This reflects uncertainty in peak daytime heating driven by variable convective cloud cover and isolated showers, which reduce incoming solar radiation and limit surface warming in Manila’s humid tropical environment. Historical August maxima average near 31°C, but day-to-day swings of 2–3°C arise from shifts in moisture convergence and the timing of rainfall relative to peak insolation. Forecasters will issue updated model runs and local observations over the next 48 hours that could refine the expected maximum before market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions