Recent above-average UK minimum temperatures, tracking 1.5°C above normal through midsummer amid a spell of mild nights, underpin the tight 36–37% market-implied odds on 20–21°C lows for London on August 4. Short-range guidance points to light winds, limited cloud cover, and possible high-pressure influence that would curb radiative cooling and support urban heat retention, keeping overnight values near or above 20°C. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearer skies creates the narrow gap between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, while historical August minima near 13–14°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月4日倫敦的最低溫度？
8月4日倫敦的最低溫度？
20°C 37%
21°C 36%
19°C 11%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
15°C or below
3%
16°C
5%
17°C
7%
18°C
9%
19°C
11%
20°C
37%
21°C
36%
22°C
10%
23°C
5%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 37%
21°C 36%
19°C 11%
22°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-04
15°C or below
$10 交易量
3%
16°C
$0 交易量
5%
17°C
$0 交易量
7%
18°C
$0 交易量
9%
19°C
$0 交易量
11%
20°C
$0 交易量
37%
21°C
$0 交易量
36%
22°C
$0 交易量
10%
23°C
$0 交易量
5%
24°C
$10 交易量
1%
25°C or higher
$10 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent above-average UK minimum temperatures, tracking 1.5°C above normal through midsummer amid a spell of mild nights, underpin the tight 36–37% market-implied odds on 20–21°C lows for London on August 4. Short-range guidance points to light winds, limited cloud cover, and possible high-pressure influence that would curb radiative cooling and support urban heat retention, keeping overnight values near or above 20°C. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearer skies creates the narrow gap between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, while historical August minima near 13–14°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
交易量
$30結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent above-average UK minimum temperatures, tracking 1.5°C above normal through midsummer amid a spell of mild nights, underpin the tight 36–37% market-implied odds on 20–21°C lows for London on August 4. Short-range guidance points to light winds, limited cloud cover, and possible high-pressure influence that would curb radiative cooling and support urban heat retention, keeping overnight values near or above 20°C. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearer skies creates the narrow gap between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, while historical August minima near 13–14°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$30結束日期
2026-08-04市場開放時間
Aug 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETRecent above-average UK minimum temperatures, tracking 1.5°C above normal through midsummer amid a spell of mild nights, underpin the tight 36–37% market-implied odds on 20–21°C lows for London on August 4. Short-range guidance points to light winds, limited cloud cover, and possible high-pressure influence that would curb radiative cooling and support urban heat retention, keeping overnight values near or above 20°C. Model spread in boundary-layer mixing and exact timing of any clearer skies creates the narrow gap between 20°C and 21°C outcomes, while historical August minima near 13–14°C highlight the current anomaly. Updated Met Office and ECMWF runs ahead of the date will likely refine these thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions