National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於芝加哥8月1日最高溫度？
芝加哥8月1日最高溫度？
70-71°F 38%
72-73°F 30%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
華氏63度或以下
1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
3%
68-69°F
16%
70-71°F
38%
72-73°F
30%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
3%
78-79°F
2%
80-81°F
1%
82°F或更高
1%
70-71°F 38%
72-73°F 30%
68-69°F 16%
74-75°F 16%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
華氏63度或以下
$139 交易量
1%
64-65°F
$140 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$36 交易量
3%
68-69°F
$238 交易量
16%
70-71°F
$506 交易量
38%
72-73°F
$328 交易量
30%
74-75°F
$99 交易量
16%
76-77°F
$129 交易量
3%
78-79°F
$107 交易量
2%
80-81°F
$133 交易量
1%
82°F或更高
$162 交易量
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
交易量
$2,016結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.National Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$2,016結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ETNational Weather Service model consensus and recent runs indicate a cooler-than-normal air mass will reach Chicago on August 1, 2026, driven by northerly flow behind a departing front and limited daytime heating under increasing clouds. This has shifted trader-implied odds toward the 70–73 °F range as the most probable outcome, well below the 1991–2020 August 1 climatological high of 84 °F. Key differentiating factors include lake-breeze moderation along the shoreline, potential for partial cloud cover reducing insolation, and uncertainty in exact frontal timing that could allow brief warming if winds turn more westerly. Official forecast updates from the Chicago NWS office through tonight will provide the final guidance ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions