USGS records confirm five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, keeping the year aligned with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events annually. Most activity clusters along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence generates frequent large quakes following a Poisson distribution with natural variability and occasional lulls. This established rate, combined with the six-week window remaining until June 30, underpins trader consensus favoring eight or more total events by the resolution date. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new seismic data releases will determine whether activity accelerates or stays subdued, directly shaping final counts against the magnitude threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1,854,431 交易量
$1,854,431 交易量
2026-06-30
7
16%
8+
84%
$1,854,431 交易量
$1,854,431 交易量
2026-06-30
7
$289,143 交易量
16%
8+
$551,702 交易量
84%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS records confirm five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, keeping the year aligned with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events annually. Most activity clusters along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence generates frequent large quakes following a Poisson distribution with natural variability and occasional lulls. This established rate, combined with the six-week window remaining until June 30, underpins trader consensus favoring eight or more total events by the resolution date. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new seismic data releases will determine whether activity accelerates or stays subdued, directly shaping final counts against the magnitude threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$1,854,431結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.USGS records confirm five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, keeping the year aligned with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events annually. Most activity clusters along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence generates frequent large quakes following a Poisson distribution with natural variability and occasional lulls. This established rate, combined with the six-week window remaining until June 30, underpins trader consensus favoring eight or more total events by the resolution date. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new seismic data releases will determine whether activity accelerates or stays subdued, directly shaping final counts against the magnitude threshold.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
交易量
$1,854,431結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 4, 2025, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...USGS records confirm five magnitude 7.0 or greater earthquakes worldwide through mid-May 2026, keeping the year aligned with the long-term global average of roughly 15–16 such events annually. Most activity clusters along Pacific Ring of Fire subduction zones, where tectonic plate convergence generates frequent large quakes following a Poisson distribution with natural variability and occasional lulls. This established rate, combined with the six-week window remaining until June 30, underpins trader consensus favoring eight or more total events by the resolution date. Ongoing USGS monitoring of major fault systems and any new seismic data releases will determine whether activity accelerates or stays subdued, directly shaping final counts against the magnitude threshold.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions