Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月19日奧斯汀的最高溫度?
86-87°F 16%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 11%
84-85°F 10%
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
16%
90°F or higher
38%
86-87°F 16%
88-89°F 16%
82-83°F 11%
84-85°F 10%
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
1%
78-79°F
5%
80-81°F
9%
82-83°F
11%
84-85°F
10%
86-87°F
16%
88-89°F
16%
90°F or higher
38%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 17, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Current National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance for Austin indicates a southerly flow and scattered thunderstorm activity that could support a daily high near or above 90°F on May 19, aligning with the market’s leading 38.5% implied probability for that threshold. Typical May climatology places the average high at 86–87°F, yet recent runs show temperatures potentially climbing into the upper 80s or low 90s depending on cloud cover and convective timing. Lower-probability bins for 84–89°F reflect model spread on storm initiation and outflow boundaries that could cap daytime peaks. Updated short-range forecasts and next model cycles in the coming 24–48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions