The market-implied 70.5% probability for a May 18 high of 90°F or higher in Austin reflects National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s under strengthening southerly flow and an upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or frontal interference, consistent with the above-normal temperature anomaly already observed across central Texas in May 2026. Recent model runs from NOAA show limited cooling potential through the period, while climatological norms for mid-May place typical highs near 86°F. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily ahead of the next National Weather Service update, which will incorporate any adjustments to dew-point or wind fields that could shift the final Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5月18日奧斯汀的最高溫度?
90°F or higher 82%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 11%
82-83°F 1.9%
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
19%
90°F or higher
73%
90°F or higher 82%
88-89°F 19%
86-87°F 11%
82-83°F 1.9%
71°F or below
<1%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78-79°F
1%
80-81°F
1%
82-83°F
2%
84-85°F
7%
86-87°F
11%
88-89°F
19%
90°F or higher
73%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: May 16, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The market-implied 70.5% probability for a May 18 high of 90°F or higher in Austin reflects National Weather Service forecasts projecting afternoon temperatures in the low-to-mid 90s under strengthening southerly flow and an upper-level ridge over the southern Plains. This setup favors strong daytime heating with minimal cloud cover or frontal interference, consistent with the above-normal temperature anomaly already observed across central Texas in May 2026. Recent model runs from NOAA show limited cooling potential through the period, while climatological norms for mid-May place typical highs near 86°F. Traders are weighting the consensus guidance heavily ahead of the next National Weather Service update, which will incorporate any adjustments to dew-point or wind fields that could shift the final Austin-Bergstrom ASOS reading.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions