Traders assign the highest probability to the 1-100 outcome because the Trump Gold Card program, established by executive order in September 2025, has recorded minimal finalized approvals through mid-2026 despite early projections of large-scale uptake. Department of Homeland Security filings and congressional testimony confirm only one approval by April 2026, with roughly 338 applications and 165 processing fees paid amid rigorous vetting and ongoing litigation over the program's legal authority. Implementation relies on existing EB-1 and EB-2 visa categories without new congressional authorization, creating procedural and capacity constraints that have kept sales volumes low. No major policy or legislative changes in recent months have accelerated processing or resolved court challenges, leaving the low-volume range as the dominant trader consensus for the remainder of the calendar year.