Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日紐約市的最低溫度？
8月1日紐約市的最低溫度？
72-73°F 35%
70-71°F 28%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
61°F或以下
1%
62-63°F
2%
64-65°F
2%
66-67°F
8%
68-69°F
12%
70-71°F
28%
72-73°F
35%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
10%
78-79°F
8%
華氏80度或以上
<1%
72-73°F 35%
70-71°F 28%
74-75°F 24%
68-69°F 12%
最新
最新
2026-08-01
61°F或以下
$31 交易量
1%
62-63°F
$25 交易量
2%
64-65°F
$146 交易量
2%
66-67°F
$0 交易量
8%
68-69°F
$0 交易量
12%
70-71°F
$0 交易量
28%
72-73°F
$0 交易量
35%
74-75°F
$0 交易量
24%
76-77°F
$7 交易量
10%
78-79°F
$125 交易量
8%
華氏80度或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
交易量
$334結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$334結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 9:30 PM ETTrader consensus assigns the highest implied probability (46.5%) to an overnight low of 61°F or below for August 1 in NYC, with the remaining probability distributed across 62–79°F bins and negligible odds above 80°F. This positioning reflects uncertainty in the strength of radiational cooling under the current late-July pattern, where a cooler, drier airmass and potential clear skies could allow temperatures to drop below the early-August climatological average low of 67–70°F. Key differentiating factors include forecast dew points, wind speeds, and cloud cover overnight, as lighter winds and lower humidity enhance surface heat loss while any residual moisture or clouds would limit the decline. Official National Weather Service guidance and updated model runs over the next 24 hours will clarify whether conditions support the cooler tail of the distribution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions