Trader consensus around 11–15°C for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 21 reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the subtropical climate, where average lows hover near 13–15°C. Primary drivers include the strength of any polar air advection from the south, extent of clear skies promoting radiative cooling at the surface, and local wind speeds that limit or enhance mixing. Subtle forecast differences in model runs—such as timing of a weak trough or variations in boundary-layer moisture—separate the tightly clustered outcomes, while the very low probabilities below 10°C or above 16°C align with historical rarity of stronger cold fronts or anomalous warming this time of year. Official station data and updated guidance from meteorological agencies will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日聖保羅最低溫度？
8月21日聖保羅最低溫度？
11°C 47%
14°C 47%
12°C 47%
10°C 46%
$1,638 交易量
$1,638 交易量
2026-08-21
9°C or below
<1%
10°C
46%
11°C
47%
12°C
47%
13°C
48%
14°C
47%
15°C
46%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
11°C 47%
14°C 47%
12°C 47%
10°C 46%
$1,638 交易量
$1,638 交易量
2026-08-21
9°C or below
$153 交易量
<1%
10°C
$0 交易量
46%
11°C
$0 交易量
47%
12°C
$28 交易量
47%
13°C
$42 交易量
48%
14°C
$0 交易量
47%
15°C
$0 交易量
46%
16°C
$177 交易量
<1%
17°C
$256 交易量
<1%
18°C
$129 交易量
<1%
19°C or higher
$853 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 11–15°C for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 21 reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the subtropical climate, where average lows hover near 13–15°C. Primary drivers include the strength of any polar air advection from the south, extent of clear skies promoting radiative cooling at the surface, and local wind speeds that limit or enhance mixing. Subtle forecast differences in model runs—such as timing of a weak trough or variations in boundary-layer moisture—separate the tightly clustered outcomes, while the very low probabilities below 10°C or above 16°C align with historical rarity of stronger cold fronts or anomalous warming this time of year. Official station data and updated guidance from meteorological agencies will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
交易量
$1,638結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus around 11–15°C for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 21 reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the subtropical climate, where average lows hover near 13–15°C. Primary drivers include the strength of any polar air advection from the south, extent of clear skies promoting radiative cooling at the surface, and local wind speeds that limit or enhance mixing. Subtle forecast differences in model runs—such as timing of a weak trough or variations in boundary-layer moisture—separate the tightly clustered outcomes, while the very low probabilities below 10°C or above 16°C align with historical rarity of stronger cold fronts or anomalous warming this time of year. Official station data and updated guidance from meteorological agencies will resolve the market.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$1,638結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:28 PM ETTrader consensus around 11–15°C for São Paulo’s overnight minimum on August 21 reflects typical mid-winter conditions in the subtropical climate, where average lows hover near 13–15°C. Primary drivers include the strength of any polar air advection from the south, extent of clear skies promoting radiative cooling at the surface, and local wind speeds that limit or enhance mixing. Subtle forecast differences in model runs—such as timing of a weak trough or variations in boundary-layer moisture—separate the tightly clustered outcomes, while the very low probabilities below 10°C or above 16°C align with historical rarity of stronger cold fronts or anomalous warming this time of year. Official station data and updated guidance from meteorological agencies will resolve the market.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions