The tight spread of market-implied odds around 29–31°C mirrors the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of a 27–31°C maximum on August 21 under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. Persistent moisture and cloud cover suppress solar insolation, capping daytime heating and reducing the chance of stronger warming that would favor 32°C or higher outcomes. Recent guidance shows limited clear-sky intervals, keeping the distribution centered on 30°C while allowing for small revisions from localized variations or updated model runs in the final 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日香港最高溫度?
30°C 37%
31°C 30%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
$32,575 交易量
$32,575 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
25%
30°C
37%
31°C
30%
32°C
9%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 37%
31°C 30%
29°C 25%
32°C 9%
$32,575 交易量
$32,575 交易量
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
3%
29°C
25%
30°C
37%
31°C
30%
32°C
9%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight spread of market-implied odds around 29–31°C mirrors the Hong Kong Observatory forecast of a 27–31°C maximum on August 21 under east to southeast winds of force 4–5, with mainly cloudy skies, scattered showers, and thunderstorms. Persistent moisture and cloud cover suppress solar insolation, capping daytime heating and reducing the chance of stronger warming that would favor 32°C or higher outcomes. Recent guidance shows limited clear-sky intervals, keeping the distribution centered on 30°C while allowing for small revisions from localized variations or updated model runs in the final 48 hours.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions