Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and European ensembles points to a high of 18–19 °C in Amsterdam on 22 August 2026 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market’s 45 % implied probability for 19 °C. Late-August climatology features a seasonal decline in maximum temperatures, averaging roughly 21–22 °C early in the month and falling toward 18–19 °C by the third week, driven by weakening insolation and increasing influence of cooler Atlantic air masses. Current short-range guidance shows light winds and possible scattered showers that limit daytime heating, keeping values below the 20 °C threshold favored by only 22 % of traders. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月22日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月22日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
19°C 45%
18°C 23%
20°C 22%
17°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
15°C或以下
1%
16°C
4%
17°C
7%
18°C
23%
19°C
45%
20°C
22%
21°C
4%
22°C
2%
23°C
1%
24°C
<1%
25°C或以上
<1%
19°C 45%
18°C 23%
20°C 22%
17°C 7%
最新
最新
2026-08-22
15°C或以下
$0 交易量
1%
16°C
$2 交易量
4%
17°C
$0 交易量
7%
18°C
$0 交易量
23%
19°C
$26 交易量
45%
20°C
$3 交易量
22%
21°C
$3 交易量
4%
22°C
$10 交易量
2%
23°C
$5 交易量
1%
24°C
$0 交易量
<1%
25°C或以上
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and European ensembles points to a high of 18–19 °C in Amsterdam on 22 August 2026 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market’s 45 % implied probability for 19 °C. Late-August climatology features a seasonal decline in maximum temperatures, averaging roughly 21–22 °C early in the month and falling toward 18–19 °C by the third week, driven by weakening insolation and increasing influence of cooler Atlantic air masses. Current short-range guidance shows light winds and possible scattered showers that limit daytime heating, keeping values below the 20 °C threshold favored by only 22 % of traders. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and European ensembles points to a high of 18–19 °C in Amsterdam on 22 August 2026 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market’s 45 % implied probability for 19 °C. Late-August climatology features a seasonal decline in maximum temperatures, averaging roughly 21–22 °C early in the month and falling toward 18–19 °C by the third week, driven by weakening insolation and increasing influence of cooler Atlantic air masses. Current short-range guidance shows light winds and possible scattered showers that limit daytime heating, keeping values below the 20 °C threshold favored by only 22 % of traders. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$48結束日期
2026-08-22市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 12:58 AM ETRecent model consensus from sources including the Met Office and European ensembles points to a high of 18–19 °C in Amsterdam on 22 August 2026 as the most probable outcome, aligning with the market’s 45 % implied probability for 19 °C. Late-August climatology features a seasonal decline in maximum temperatures, averaging roughly 21–22 °C early in the month and falling toward 18–19 °C by the third week, driven by weakening insolation and increasing influence of cooler Atlantic air masses. Current short-range guidance shows light winds and possible scattered showers that limit daytime heating, keeping values below the 20 °C threshold favored by only 22 % of traders. Updated runs over the next 24–48 hours will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions