**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 20°C on August 21 in Amsterdam, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus and typical late-summer climatology.** Current model guidance and long-range outlooks point to daytime highs near the seasonal average of 21°C, tempered by North Sea maritime air, scattered showers, and a lack of strong high-pressure ridging that would otherwise allow greater warming. AccuWeather and other sources project daily maxima in the 19–22°C range through late August, with specific runs for the 21st showing around 19–21°C amid light rain or cloudy conditions that suppress peak readings. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 19–21°C because these values align with both historical baselines and the most recent forecast updates, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band due to the low likelihood of anomalous heat or unusual cooling this close to the date. As new high-resolution model runs and observational data become available over the next 48 hours, any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月21日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
8月21日阿姆斯特丹的最高溫度？
20°C 57%
19°C 20%
21°C 17%
18°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
6%
19°C
20%
20°C
48%
21°C
17%
22°C
6%
23°C
3%
24°C
<1%
25°C或更高
<1%
20°C 57%
19°C 20%
21°C 17%
18°C 6%
最新
最新
2026-08-21
15°C or below
$23 交易量
<1%
16°C
$73 交易量
1%
17°C
$14 交易量
4%
18°C
$10 交易量
6%
19°C
$97 交易量
20%
20°C
$251 交易量
48%
21°C
$23 交易量
17%
22°C
$15 交易量
6%
23°C
$5 交易量
3%
24°C
$21 交易量
<1%
25°C或更高
$36 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 20°C on August 21 in Amsterdam, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus and typical late-summer climatology.**
Current model guidance and long-range outlooks point to daytime highs near the seasonal average of 21°C, tempered by North Sea maritime air, scattered showers, and a lack of strong high-pressure ridging that would otherwise allow greater warming. AccuWeather and other sources project daily maxima in the 19–22°C range through late August, with specific runs for the 21st showing around 19–21°C amid light rain or cloudy conditions that suppress peak readings.
Trader positioning clusters tightly around 19–21°C because these values align with both historical baselines and the most recent forecast updates, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band due to the low likelihood of anomalous heat or unusual cooling this close to the date. As new high-resolution model runs and observational data become available over the next 48 hours, any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
交易量
$560結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 20°C on August 21 in Amsterdam, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus and typical late-summer climatology.**
Current model guidance and long-range outlooks point to daytime highs near the seasonal average of 21°C, tempered by North Sea maritime air, scattered showers, and a lack of strong high-pressure ridging that would otherwise allow greater warming. AccuWeather and other sources project daily maxima in the 19–22°C range through late August, with specific runs for the 21st showing around 19–21°C amid light rain or cloudy conditions that suppress peak readings.
Trader positioning clusters tightly around 19–21°C because these values align with both historical baselines and the most recent forecast updates, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band due to the low likelihood of anomalous heat or unusual cooling this close to the date. As new high-resolution model runs and observational data become available over the next 48 hours, any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$560結束日期
2026-08-21市場開放時間
Aug 19, 2026, 12:57 AM ET**Market-implied odds favor a peak of 20°C on August 21 in Amsterdam, reflecting ensemble forecast consensus and typical late-summer climatology.** Current model guidance and long-range outlooks point to daytime highs near the seasonal average of 21°C, tempered by North Sea maritime air, scattered showers, and a lack of strong high-pressure ridging that would otherwise allow greater warming. AccuWeather and other sources project daily maxima in the 19–22°C range through late August, with specific runs for the 21st showing around 19–21°C amid light rain or cloudy conditions that suppress peak readings. Trader positioning clusters tightly around 19–21°C because these values align with both historical baselines and the most recent forecast updates, while probabilities drop sharply outside this band due to the low likelihood of anomalous heat or unusual cooling this close to the date. As new high-resolution model runs and observational data become available over the next 48 hours, any shift in steering patterns or cloud cover could adjust these implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions